• DICK WALSH's Industry Update
  • Posted on Dec 31, 2023 @ 11:37 AM PT

WONKA Returns to #1 as Warner Bros. Lands 3 of the Weekend’s Top 4 Movies

Warner Bros. is ending 2023 on a high note, responsible for three of the top four movies in theatres.  The studio held first place with WONKA, second with AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM, and fourth with THE COLOR PURPLE.

This is the first time this feat has been accomplished in 37 years since Paramount pulled it off with an amazing 1-2-3 finish in the weekend of 12/26-12/28 in 1998 with THE GOLDEN CHILD, STAR TREK VOYAGE HOME, and CROCODILE DUNDEE.

As challenging as it has been in the last two weeks to match last year’s impressive results for AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER, Warner Bros. has done its part to save exhibitors this holiday season by offering an array of movies.  The impact of the long-running actors; strike prompted the studio to shift DUNE: PART 2 from its scheduled 11/3 release date to open next March.

Sony followed suit by pushing GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE from 12/20 to March as well.  Some worried that WB might also choose to delay its other Christmas releases, but ultimately, the studio stood firm with its other titles.

All films took in $117.0M this weekend compared to $103.7M for the same weekend last year, an increase of 13%.  Without the Warner Bros. trio, all other films would have produced $60.5M this weekend, or 42% less than last year.

While other studios would most likely have stepped in to offer choices to fill the void, it is worth considering which studios and what movies, after labor strikes interrupted all production for five months of the year.

WONKA took the top spot this weekend with an impressive $24.0M, 33% more than last weekend’s take.  This shot the musical starring Timothee Chalamet back into first place, after taking second last weekend.  The film has grossed $134.6M domestically over its first 17 days in release, with an opportunity to continue to do well throughout January.

We project it will complete its theatrical run with a gross of $200M domestic and $500M worldwide, with a full 60% of sales coming from international markets.  It will certainly be profitable after Warner Bros. spent only $125M on its production.  Based on this success, it seems unlikely that it will take another 52 years before we see the world’s most famous chocolatier return to the big screen.

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM dropped down from first to second place, with $19.5M this weekend.  While most other films saw an increase from totals last weekend in the pre-Christmas frame, AQUAMAN 2 suffered a decline of 30%.  This follows the emerging pattern for superhero movies this year, which have struggled in their opening and declined quickly.

The ten-day gross for AQUAMAN 2 stands at $77.8M, only 41% of the $189.0M earned by the original AQUAMAN at this same point.  If this trend continues, exhibitors will remove it from many of their screens in two weeks when three new wide releases will arrive on 1/12.  Note that AQUAMAN played for 15 weeks after it opened on 12/21/2018 and generated a domestic total of $335.4M.

Universal’s MIGRATION finished in third place, with a gross of $17.2M and an increase of 38% compared to last weekend.  Last week in our Weekend Review column, we compared this movie to PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH, which also opened before Christmas last year and played well for months, having no significant competition for the family, animated audience until the 4/7/23 release of THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE.

This comparison seems relevant, since PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH also enjoyed a second weekend box office bump of 35%.  After twelve days (PUSS IN BOOTS opened on a Wednesday) it had sold $61.2M, whereas in ten days MIGRATION has now earned $54.3M.

MIGRATION should also benefit from there being no other high-end animated titles until 3/29 when KUNG FU PANDA 4 opens.  This may allow MIGRATION to come close to the success of PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH, which wound up earning $186.1M domestically.

THE COLOR PURPLE earned $13.0M in its first weekend to take fourth place.  This film is an adaptation of the Broadway musical that opened on 12/1/2005 but also contains some elements of the first movie in 1985 and the bestselling book by Alice Walker published in 1982.

THE COLOR PURPLE opened on Monday, Christmas Day when it produced a stellar $18.15M and won that day easily.  It was the second highest Christmas Day opening day in history, trailing only SHERLOCK HOLMES which grossed $24.6M on 12/25/2009. It has since drifted back to fourth place but is doing well overall, having earned $45.3M in its first seven days.

It is unfair to compare the results for the current movie to the 1985 original.  That film opened on 12/18/1985 in only 192 theatres and did not reach its full distribution to 1,109 locations until 2/2/1986, with Warner Bros. choosing to grow its audience slowly to build a buzz around it leading up to that year’s Academy Award nominations.

The strategy worked, with the film receiving ten Academy Award nominations including Best Picture.  Alas, once the envelopes had all been opened THE COLOR PURPLE did not walk away with any wins.  Still, it earned $98.5M domestically, which was a considerable success in 1980’s dollars.

38 years later, Warner Bros. opened this year’s musical version of THE COLOR PURPLE at 3,152 locations, making it widely available on day one.  This movie is directed by Blitz Bazawule and produced by Oprah Winfrey, Steven Spielberg, Scott Sanders, and Quincy Jones.

Its star-studded cast includes Taraji P. Henson, Fantasia Taylor, David Allen Grier, Louis Gosset Jr., and Tamela J. Mann with a cameo by Whoopi Goldberg who delivers Celie’s baby.  Goldberg, of course, played Celie in the original. Reviewers like the movie, giving it an 86% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes, but moviegoers are enthusiastic with a 95% audience score.

This compares favorably to scores for the original movie, which received 73% and 94%, respectively.  The new musical cost an estimated $ 90M-$100M to produce, compared with a $ 15M budget for the original drama.

Fifth place fell to Sony’s ANYONE BUT YOU with a surprisingly strong $9.0M.  This was an amazing 50% increase from its first weekend, the largest of any picture in the top ten.  The picture is benefiting from the fact that it is the only true “date night” movie in the marketplace and is receiving a positive word-of-mouth judging from its 87% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes.

It has earned $25.1M in its first ten days, which already matches the amount spent to create the movie.  Based on this success, and low risk, it could be a candidate for a sequel down the road.

Looking at other Christmas Day openings, MGM’s BOYS IN THE BOAT rowed to a sixth-place finish with a gross of $8.3M in the first weekend.  Much like THE COLOR PURPLE, the first seven days over the holiday period have been solid, taking in $21.9M.

The movie was directed by George Clooney and features a cast of British and Australian actors with few well-known film credits.  Based on a non-fiction novel of the same name, the movie tells the story of the University of Washington rowing crew that represented the United States in “The Eight” (eight rowers plus a coxswain) at the 1936 Summer Olympic Games in Berlin.

This true story focuses on the lives of the coaches, boatbuilders, and working-class student-athletes of the crew.  Critics have not been kind, giving it a 58% score on Rotten Tomatoes, but moviegoers have cheered it on with a 97% audience score.

This is one of the widest disparities of the year between critics and audience scores.  With a production budget of $ 50M-$60M, it will have to continue to attract moviegoers for several more weeks to reach profitability. Positive word-of-mouth may help it cross the finish line.

Finishing in eighth place was Neon’s biopic FERRARI.  This movie hoped to attract the FORD V FERRARI audience from several years ago but only sold $4.1M this weekend and $10.9M total since it opened last Monday.  With Adam Driver starring as the famous carmaker Enzo Ferrari, the film has received a lukewarm response, with critics offering a 73% score on Rotten Tomatoes and audiences giving it a similar 72%.

After spending $95M to make the film, it will need to play well in foreign markets to break even.  It has a chance to accomplish this, due to the fame and appeal of the brand in European and Asian markets.

Where Are We as of 12/28

After 51 weeks, the 2023 year-to-date box office stands at 121% compared with the same point in 2022 and 81% of the numbers from 2019.

Where Ware We as of 2023-12-28

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    13. Electronic communications.The communications between you and SCREENDOLLARS may use electronic means, whether you visit or use our Services or send e-mails to us, or whether SCREENDOLLARS posts notices on or in the Services or communicates with you via e-mail. For contractual purposes, you (a) consent to receive communications from SCREENDOLLARS in an electronic form; and (b) agree that all terms and conditions, agreements, notices, disclosures, and other communications that SCREENDOLLARS provides to you electronically satisfy any legal requirement that such communications would satisfy if it were be in a hardcopy writing. The foregoing does not affect your statutory rights, including but not limited to the Electronic Signatures in Global and National Commerce Act at 15 U.S.C. section 7001 et. Seq (“E-Sign”).
    14. Governing law. Any and all controversies, disputes, demands, counts, claims or causes of action between you and SCREENDOLLARS and our employees, agents, successors, or assigns, regarding or relating to this Agreement or the Services will exclusively be governed by the internal laws of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, without regard to its choice of law rules and without regard to conflicts of law principles except that the arbitration provisions will be governed by the Federal Arbitration Act. The United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods will not apply to this Agreement.
    15. Notice.Where SCREENDOLLARS requires that you provide an e-mail address, you are responsible for providing us with your most current e-mail address. In the event that the last e-mail address you provided to us is not valid, or for any reason is not capable of delivering to any notices required or permitted by this Agreement, our dispatch of the e-mail containing such notice will nonetheless constitute effective notice.  You may give notice to us at the address set forth in Section 8.8.  Such notice shall be deemed given when received by us by letter delivered by nationally recognized overnight delivery service or first class postage prepaid mail at that address.
    16. Entire Agreement.This Agreement, including the documents referred to herein, constitutes the entire agreement between you and us regarding the use of the Services. Our failure to exercise or enforce any right or provision of this Agreement will not operate as a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of this Agreement is, for any reason, held to be invalid or unenforceable, the other provisions of this Agreement will be unimpaired and the invalid or unenforceable provision will be deemed modified so that it is valid and enforceable to the maximum extent permitted by law. Your relationship to SCREENDOLLARS is that of an independent contractor, and neither party is an agent or partner of the other. This Agreement, and your rights and obligations herein, may not be assigned, subcontracted, or otherwise transferred by you without SCREENDOLLARS’s prior written consent, and any attempted assignment, subcontract, or transfer in violation of the foregoing will be null and void. The terms and conditions set forth in this Agreement will be binding upon assignees.
    17. Copyright/Trademark Information.Copyright © 2020, Screendollars, LLC. All rights reserved. All trademarks, logos and service marks (“Marks”) displayed on or in the Services are our property or the property of third parties. You may not use these Marks without our prior written consent or the consent of such third party.
    18. Contact Information:SCREENDOLLARS, LLC. | 33 Miller Hill Road, Dover, MA 02030 | (978) 494-4150, contactus@screendollars.com.

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