After the record-setting pace over the last two weeks in November, the box office cooled off somewhat in this first full weekend of December but still came out ahead of last year. MOANA 2 led all films with $52.0M in its second weekend, receiving strong support from WICKED and GLADIATOR II each playing in their third weekend.
The total for all films came to $131.0M, almost twice as much as the $70.4M produced last year at this time when the top movie was GKIDS’ anime feature THE BOY AND THE BLUE HERON which earned $13.0M in its debut.
This continues an end-of-year push to close the gap between the box office of 2024 and 2023. Here is a recap of the previous three weekends in the last two years.
The last three weekends have brought in more than twice the box office compared with the same period last year, $610.1M versus $283.5M. This has narrowed the earnings gap between the two years considerably, knocking off five full percentage points from the 13% deficit that existed three weeks ago.
This momentum should continue based on the strength of this year’s remaining key films, including MUFASA: THE LION KING which is estimated to earn $260M from December 20-22, and SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3 which could earn$200M on that same weekend.
These movies will certainly outperform the year’s top late-year openings of WONKA which earned $150M from December 15-17 and AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM which grossed $89M from December 22-24. While we do not expect this year’s entire shortfall to disappear, 2024 could wind up only 5% lower than last year. Moreover, the early weeks and months of 2025 will be very strong in comparison to the anemic start for 2024.
Disney’s MOANA 2 was the top movie for the second weekend in a row, earning $52.0M a drop of 63%. This brings its 12-day total to $300.0M domestic and $536.7M worldwide. The performance of the sequel has far exceeded that of the original movie, with the following totals after 12 days in theatres.
MOANA vs. MOANA 2 after 12 Days
- MOANA (11/23/2016) – Opening Domestic 3 Days $56.6M, Opening Domestic 5 Days $82M, Opening Domestic 12 Days $119.8M, Total Domestic $248.8M, Total Worldwide $643.3M, Budget $150M, RT Critics/Audience 95%/89%
- MOANA 2 (11/25/2024) – Opening Domestic 3 Days $135.5M, Opening Domestic 5 Days $221M, Opening Domestic 12 Days $300.0M, Budget $150M, RT Critics/Audience 65%/87%
It took MOANA 2 only 10 days to surpass the $248.8M domestic box office that MOANA earned in its 156-day run in 2016 and 2017. It accomplished this while playing opposite WICKED, which has been very a successful movie as well.
Both movies have benefitted from a boom in interest for family films, as evidenced by the spectacular summer success of INSIDE OUT 2 which set a new all-time domestic animation record with $653.0M in ticket sales. Sensing this, Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Disney,+, and others have all filled their streaming services with family-friendly titles. The return of families to movie theatres is part of this bigger picture.
Paramount’s WICKED finished in second place with a total of $34.9M in its third weekend, a drop of 57%. After 17 days, the film has brought in $320.5M domestically and $426.2M worldwide. MOANA 2 and WICKED are vying to win the crown as the top movie of the fourth quarter, with the current standings for both movies as follows.
WICKED VS. MOANA 2 AS OF 12/8/2024
- WICKED (11/20/2024) – Domestic 17 Days $320.5M, Budget $150M, RT Critics/Audience 89%/96%
- MOANA 2 (11/25/2024) – Domestic 12 Days $300.0M, Budget $150M, RT Critics/Audience 62%/87%
While WICKED has the advantage of having played in theatres for five more days, the total gross to date for MOANA 2 has already passed that for WICKED. However, WICKED’s weekday performance on Wednesday and Thursday was higher than MOANA 2’s. The race between the two could be neck and neck to the end of the year.
Paramount’s GLADIATOR II in its third weekend finished in third place, with an additional $12.5M and a drop of 60%. After 17 days, Ridley Scott’s action sequel has brought in $132.7M domestic and $362.3M worldwide. We expect it to come off many of its current screens when the 12/20 Christmas releases open, and wind up its theatrical run in the first or second week of the new year having earned a domestic total box office of $160M and a worldwide total of $450M.
This will place it well behind the inflation-adjusted figures of the original GLADIATOR which were $343.9M domestic and $853.3M worldwide. Having a steep production budget of $250M, GLADIATOR II would need to gross $625M worldwide to reach profitability, and it seems highly unlikely to get there. Still, the studio could see a meaningful rise in new subscribers to Paramount+ to watch it online.
Finishing in fourth place is Amazon/MGM’s RED ONE, which took in $7.0M and dropped 45%. This brings its 24-day totals to $85.8M domestic and $165.3M worldwide. We expect RED ONE to wind up with approximately $115M domestic and $220M worldwide, which is far lower than the amount necessary for this $250M production to break even on its theatrical run. However, Amazon may be playing the long game with this high-profile feature, reinforcing the unique value of subscribing to Amazon Prime.
Fifth place went to PUSHPA 2: THE RULE from Prathyngira Cinemas, which took in $4.9M in its opening 3 days. This Indian Telugu language action film is a sequel to PUSHPA: THE RISE, which grossed $7.6M worldwide in 2021 when cinemas were contending with the effects of COVID-19. Both movies are directed by the Indian filmmaker Sukumar and star Allu Arjun and Rashmika Manadanna.
Like the original, the story focuses on the smuggling underworld and offers grand action sequences billed as an unforgettable cinematic experience. Much is expected of the film as the $12M salary that Allu Arjun received for the sequel is rumored to be the highest ever for an Indian film. It has also set the global record for screen count by an Indian film, playing on 12,500 screens worldwide.
Its U.S. distribution is accompanied by custom-branded merchandise including popcorn tubs and drink cups, a first once again for an Indian feature. While it has not received a sufficient number of critics reviews to have a critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes, the audience score is registering at 77%. Its total production budget of $60M makes it one of the most expensive Indian films in history.
Where Are We as of 12/5/2024
After 48 weeks and last week’s solid performance, the 2024 box office picked up 2 additional percentage points to 91% of 2023 and 75% of 2019 totals.