DICK WALSH's Industry Update
Posted on May 07, 2023 @ 10:14 AM PT

Weekend Review… 5/5-5/7

Marvel’s GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 burst out of the gate into first place with an opening weekend of $114M. Over recent years, the first weekend in May has emerged as the unofficial start for the summer moviegoing season. Last year, summer got off to a terrific start with the $187.4M debut of DR. STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS from 5/6 – 5/8. While GUARDIANS VOL. 3 did not reach those heights, it’s worth considering how it matches up to the two prior movies in the series.

Guardians Comparisons

VOL. 3 earned 78% of the gross brought in by VOL. 2 in 2017, which came in the midst of one of the most successful moviegoing periods in history, when Marvel movies ruled the world.

VOL. 3 with the weight of the entire Marvel Universe on its shoulders. It’s the second movie in Phase Five of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, following only 2 ½ months after the first Phase Five movie ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA, which earned $213M in North America and $475M worldwide. Some have begun to wonder if the allure of superhero blockbusters might be fading.

While pessimists point to an 81% critics score for GUARDIANS VOL. 3 on Rotten Tomatoes, the lowest of the three films in the series, optimists see an enthusiastic 96% audience score as the only number that matters. We propose that the rumors of the demise in superhero movies are greatly exaggerated. Let’s break down the details.

To-date, the ANT-MAN trilogy has grossed $1.4B in worldwide at the box office. While critics savaged ANT-MAN 3 with a 47% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, moviegoers were mostly positive with an 83% audience rating. ANT-MAN 3’s total domestic gross hit 98% of the amount earned by its immediate predecessor. The worldwide box office for ANT-MAN 3 has far surpassed its $200M production budget, adding to the sizeable profits Disney has earned from this Marvel series. This success has been overshadowed by the cloud of doom and gloom press that has surrounded its release.

And now, the knives are out again for GUARDIANS VOL. 3, whose opening weekend came in at 78% of the $146.5M debut for GUARDIANS VOL. 2. It’s not unusual for the third movie in a trilogy to come in somewhat lower than the second, with audiences showing less in interest in seeing yet another plot variation with well-known characters.

While the higher the better, GUARDIANS VOL. 3 generated $114M, which represents a very solid start to the summer. GUARDIANS VOL. 3 will remain in the top spot next weekend, since there will be no other new movies opening that have broad box office appeal. In two weeks, Universal’s FAST X will burst on the scene and in almost certainly blow by GUARDIANS VOL. 3 to become the top movie of the weekend.

By that time, 2023 will have 19 full weeks in the books, with a box office that is likely to reach 131% compared with the same weeks in 2022, and GUARDIANS VOL. 3 will have done its job in holding up the early May period.

Universal’s THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE came in second place in its fifth weekend with a $18.6M gross, and a drop of 54% from last weekend. SUPER MARIO has been super successful, exceeding all expectations with $518M in domestic ticket sales over its first 31 days. Earlier this week, it passed the $1B mark in worldwide sales and is largely responsible for giving the industry the third highest April box office in history, surpassed only by April 2018 when AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR opened and April 2019 when AVENGERS: ENDGAME opened.

Warner Bros.’ EVIL DEAD RISE finished in third place with $5.7M additional in its third weekend, down 53% from weekend #2. After 17 days, the fifth movie in the EVIL DEAD series has generated an impressive $54M and we expect it to wind up with a total in the mid-$65M range for its North American run. This year’s chapters is following a similar path to the third film in the series, EVIL DEAD, which had been the best performer by earning $54M in 2013.

Lionsgate’s ARE YOU THERE GOD? IT’S ME MARGARET fell to fourth place with a weekend total of $3.4M and a drop of 50% The story appeals mostly to a female demographic, both young and old, who are less likely to all rush out to see a movie they are interested in on its opening weekend. However, last week’s debut was below expectations and this week’s drop from that opening is slightly higher than predicted. MARGARET is at risk of being lost in the oncoming rush of mega-titles coming later in the month. BOOK CLUB 2 will open next week, and is likely to peel of most of the older female audience. Still, MARGARET has been very received by critics and audiences with grades of 99% and 96% respectively. Based on this positive word of mouth, we hope that it will stay relevant through Memorial Day to achieve most of its earnings potential.

Fifth place was taken by Sony’s LOVE AGAIN, which opened with $2.4M in its first three days. The romantic comedy stars Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Sam Heughan and Celine Dion and tells the story of a woman who, in dealing with the death of her fiancé, sends a series of romantic texts to his old cell phone number. The number has been reassigned to a new gent, who is charmed by the honesty of her feelings. He’s a writer who is currently working with Celine Dion on a story about her career, and he involves Celine in his search for the mysterious texter. Of course, this gives a role for Celine, who takes the opportunity to work in in a few new songs over the course of the movie. Critics have had hard time believing the plot, and have given it shockingly low 13% on Rotten Tomatoes. Moviegoers, as few as there are, have enjoyed the schmaltz and given it an equally shocking 93% audience score. This 80% disparity between critics and audiences is the largest we have ever seen. In a master stroke of cost containment, Sony developed this picture on a production budget of only $9M, and it will almost certainly be a profitable venture, on the strength of Celine’s status as a worldwide star.

All movies this weekend grossed $156.7M, compared to $222.2M from the same weekend in 2022. Last year’s top movie was DR. STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS which opened with huge $185.1M. This is only the second time in 2023 that a weekend has put up lower results than the same weekend in 2022.

WHERE ARE WE AS OF 5/4

After 17 weeks, 2023 has brought in 139% of the box office earned during the same period in 2022. Week 17 in 2019 saw the record-breaking opening of AVENGERS: ENDGAME, which grossed an amazing $357M in three days. As a result, the 2023 to 2019 comparison dropped 9 percentage points to come in at 77%.

2023-2022-2019

[addtoany]

Warner Bros. Discovery Swings...

Movie Review: ‘Book Club:...

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