DICK WALSH's Industry Update
Posted on Nov 03, 2024 @ 12:17 PM PT

VENOM: THE LAST DANCE, Wounded but Still Alive at #1

At the box office this weekend, Sony and Marvel’s VENOM: THE LAST DANCE experienced an expected decline compared with last week’s opening but still had enough left to claim top spot with $26.1M in new sales. The total for all films came in at $73.6M, with additional support provided by the cast of holdovers and lower-profile new releases.

This was higher than the $63.1M produced last year on this same post-Halloween weekend, led by FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY’S with $19.0M in its second frame. That weekend was the lowest-grossing of the 4^th quarter last year, and we expect that this year’s first weekend in November will come in close to matching that dubious honor, with only slightly more ($5M) than the $687.M earned two weekends ago from Oct-18-20.

Next Friday, as many as six new titles will open in wide release, playing at over 1000 U.S. and Canadian theatres. We hope that at least one or two will attract a significant audience to the theatre, with the leading contenders being A24’s horror flick HERETIC starring Hugh Grant or Lionsgate’s comedy THE BEST CHRISTMAS PAGEANT EVER. The week after, Amazon MGM’s action comedy RED ONE opens on 11/15, starring Dwayne Johnson, Chris Evans and Lucy Liu.

The real box office action will come at the end of the month, with WICKED and GLADIATOR II opening on 11/22 followed by MOANA 2 on 11/27. Exhibitors are already seeing brisk advance ticket sales for all three movies. So much attention is focused on them that the next two weekends may amount to an appetizer before the upcoming Thanksgiving feast.

In its first ten days, VENOM THE LAST DANCE has earned $90M domestic and $317M worldwide. The current and last outing in the VENOM trilogy has produced lower totals than the first two movies in the series.

VENOM Series Box Office Results After 10 Days

VENOM (10/5/18) – Domestic Opening $80.3M, Domestic 2nd Weekend $35.0M (-56%), Domestic 10-Day $142.1M, Domestic Total $213.5M, Worldwide Total $856.1M, Budget $100M, RT Critics/Audience 30%/80%
VENOM: LET THERE BE CARNAGE (10/1/21) – Domestic Opening $90.0M, Domestic 2nd Weekend $31.8M (-65%), Domestic 10-Day $142.4M, Domestic Total $213.6M, Worldwide Total $506.8M, Budget $110M, RT Critics/Audience 58%/84%
VENOM: THE LAST DANCE (10/25/24) – Domestic Opening $51.0M, Domestic 2nd Weekend $26.1M (-49%), Domestic 10-Day $90.0M, Budget $120M, RT Critics/Audience 39%/81%

After THE LAST DANCE opened with 57% of the box office earned by its immediate predecessor LET THERE BE CARNAGE, the latest chapter has improved slightly after ten days with 63% of the earlier film’s total. The 10/25 opening date of THE LAST DANCE may be working against it, compared to a 10/5 release date for LET THERE BE CARNAGE in 2021.

By opening earlier in the month, LET THERE BE CARNAGE could benefit from four weeks of pre-Halloween moviegoing, whereas THE LAST DANCE had only one pre-Halloween weekend in theatres. Moreover, since this year’s October was relatively devoid of major competition, a case could be made that THE LAST DANCE would have capitalized on an earlier release date.

Thankfully, THE LAST DANCE is doing well in international markets, where it has earned 65% of its worldwide total which stands at $247.3M. Global sales will do enough to ensure that THE LAST DANCE winds up being profitable for Sony.

Universal’s THE WILD ROBOT continued on its slow, steady march, re-claiming second place with $7.6M this weekend, an improvement of 11% from last weekend. After 38 days, the DreamWorks animated original has earned $121.5M domestic and $248.5M worldwide, showing remarkable consistency since its September 27^th opening.

THE WILD ROBOT’s Six Weekend Performance

If all movies maintained their audience over time as well as THE WILD ROBOT has, this business would be very profitable indeed! It still has three more weekends to run before Disney’s MOANA 2 opens to take over the family audience in theatres. We predict that THE WILD ROBOT will wind up earning nearly $140M in North American theatres by the time it comes off screen.

SMILE 2 managed to hold up well during the post-Halloween hangover, finishing in third place with $6.8M this weekend, a drop of only 29%. After 17 days, the horror sequel has taken in $52.7M domestically and $103.3M worldwide. Here is a comparison of the two SMILE movies after 17 days.

SMILE vs. SMILE 2 after 17 Days

SMILE (9/30/2022) – Domestic Opening $22.6M, Domestic 2nd Weekend $18.5M (-18%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $12.6M (-32%), Domestic 17-day $71.3M, Domestic Total $105.9M, Worldwide Total $217.4M, Budget $17M, RT Critics/Audience 79%/77%
SMILE 2 (10/18/2024) – Domestic Opening $23.0M, Domestic 2nd Weekend $9.4M (-59%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $6.8M (-29%), Domestic 17-day $52.7M, Budget $28M, RT Critics/Audience 85%/81%

The original SMILE benefited from two more weeks of pre-Halloween playtime that the sequel did not have. We project that SMILE 2 will get close to $70M in domestic sales, which will be enough to make it profitable since it costs only $28M to make the movie.

CONCLAVE finished in fourth place with $5.3M, a decline of 20% from last weekend’s opening total. In ten days, it has earned $15.2M domestically, without any worldwide distribution until this point. Positive word of mouth is helping this adult-themed drama maintain its momentum, having Rotten Tomatoes scores of 92% from critics and 84% from audiences.

This success should help the movie continue to play at most of its current locations, numbering 1,796 as of this weekend. This will be critical in boosting its final box office total, especially if it is still playing widely when the productive Thanksgiving holiday period begins.

HERE from Sony finished in fifth place with $5.0M in its opening. The movie was directed and produced by Robert Zemeckis who also co-wrote the screenplay with Eric Roth. The story is based on a 2014 graphic novel by Richard McGuire. The A-list cast includes Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, reunited onscreen 30 years after their iconic roles as Forrest Gump and Jenny Curran in FORREST GUMP.

The cast of HERE also features Paul Bettany (THE DA VINCI CODE), Kelly Reilly (“Yellowstone”), and Michelle Dockery (DOWNTON ABBEY). It follows events that take place on a single spot of land, where a family’s multiple generations live their lives and experience love, loss, and laughter.

Zemeckis has had a well-regarded commercially successful career with his films including ROMANCING THE STONE (1984), BACK TO THE FUTURE (1985), WHO FRAMED ROGER RABBIT (1986), FORREST GUMP (1994), CASTAWAY (2000), FLIGHT (2012) and WELCOME TO MARWEEN (2018).

His movies have received 36 Academy Award nominations and won the Oscar 11 times. His most celebrated work was FORREST GUMP, which took home six Oscars including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor (Hanks). HERE is his 25^th movie as director, with the previous titles earning an amazing $4.4B in worldwide box office.

This is the fourth collaboration between Zemeckis and Hanks, following FORREST GUMP, THE POLAR EXPRESS and CASTAWAY. It is somewhat of a surprise to see critics uninspired by the result, giving HERE only a 36% score on Rotten Tomatoes. Audiences have shown a bit more interest, with a 57% rating. HERE was conceived as a small picture by design, focused on a single location, full of dialogue, and with very few special effects.

To tell the decades-long story of Hanks’ and Wright’s entire adult life together, the film uses a new generative artificial intelligence technology called Metaphysic Live, that faces swaps and de-ages actors as they perform, with minimal need for post-production processing. After its poor critical reception and a low opening at the box office, HERE will most likely go down as an interesting effort, but not a profitable movie.

Where Are We as of 10/31/24

After 43 weeks, the 2024 year-to-date box office has climbed to 87% of 2023 totals and 73% of 2019 totals at this same point in the year.

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Governing law. Any and all controversies, disputes, demands, counts, claims or causes of action between you and SCREENDOLLARS and our employees, agents, successors, or assigns, regarding or relating to this Agreement or the Services will exclusively be governed by the internal laws of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, without regard to its choice of law rules and without regard to conflicts of law principles except that the arbitration provisions will be governed by the Federal Arbitration Act. The United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods will not apply to this Agreement.
Notice.Where SCREENDOLLARS requires that you provide an e-mail address, you are responsible for providing us with your most current e-mail address. In the event that the last e-mail address you provided to us is not valid, or for any reason is not capable of delivering to any notices required or permitted by this Agreement, our dispatch of the e-mail containing such notice will nonetheless constitute effective notice. You may give notice to us at the address set forth in Section 8.8. Such notice shall be deemed given when received by us by letter delivered by nationally recognized overnight delivery service or first class postage prepaid mail at that address.
Entire Agreement.This Agreement, including the documents referred to herein, constitutes the entire agreement between you and us regarding the use of the Services. Our failure to exercise or enforce any right or provision of this Agreement will not operate as a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of this Agreement is, for any reason, held to be invalid or unenforceable, the other provisions of this Agreement will be unimpaired and the invalid or unenforceable provision will be deemed modified so that it is valid and enforceable to the maximum extent permitted by law. Your relationship to SCREENDOLLARS is that of an independent contractor, and neither party is an agent or partner of the other. This Agreement, and your rights and obligations herein, may not be assigned, subcontracted, or otherwise transferred by you without SCREENDOLLARS’s prior written consent, and any attempted assignment, subcontract, or transfer in violation of the foregoing will be null and void. The terms and conditions set forth in this Agreement will be binding upon assignees.
Copyright/Trademark Information.Copyright © 2020, Screendollars, LLC. All rights reserved. All trademarks, logos and service marks (“Marks”) displayed on or in the Services are our property or the property of third parties. You may not use these Marks without our prior written consent or the consent of such third party.
Contact Information:SCREENDOLLARS, LLC. | 33 Miller Hill Road, Dover, MA 02030 | (978) 494-4150, contactus@screendollars.com.