For the third weekend in a row, a new sequel opened in first place at the box office. Two weeks ago it was TERRIFIER 3 and last weekend SMILE 2 stepped into the limelight. This weekend, Sony and Marvel’s VENOM: THE LAST DANCE led the pack with $51.0M, lifting the total for all movies to $92M. In the same pre-Halloween weekend last year, FIVE NIGHT AT FREDDY’S celebrated an $80M opening, with all films producing an impressive $126.3M.
This weekend’s underperforming debut for VENOM puts more pressure on the upcoming holiday slate to help 2024 box office revenues climb back into the same ballpark as last year. On the bright side, advance ticket sales have started strong for the dual releases of WICKED and GLADIATOR II, both arriving on 11/22. A lot is riding on these two movies, with some daring to compare them to the summer 2023 double-bill blockbusters of BARBIE and OPPENHEIMER, a.k.a. “Barbenheimer.” Could there be a ‘Wickedator’ in our future?
VENOM: THE LAST DANCE is the third and final installment of the VENOM trilogy, which began in 2018 with VENOM and continued in 2021 with its first sequel VENOM: LET THERE BE CARNAGE. The first two movies were quite profitable, sparking optimism at the prospect of a successful third installment. VENOM: THE LAST DANCE was directed by Kelly Marcel, who wrote the screenplay for this movie as well as the two earlier films.
Tom Hardy is back in the lead role of Eddie Brock/Venom. The storyline picks up after the events in VENOM: LET THERE BE CARNAGE, with Eddie and his symbiote alter-self Venom on the run from a newly introduced supervillain being known as a Xenophage. They are hunted from New York to Las Vegas and out to the super-secret Area 51 Air Force base where their conflict reaches its crescendo. Here is a look at how the three VENOM films performed at the box office.
VENOM Series Box Office Results
- VENOM (10/5/18) – Domestic Opening $80.3M, Domestic Total $213.5M, Worldwide Total $856.1M, Budget $100M, RT Critics/Audience 30%/80%
- VENOM: LET THERE BE CARNAGE (10/1/21) – Domestic Opening $90.0M, Domestic Total $213.6M, Worldwide Total $506.8M, Budget $110M, RT Critics/Audience 57%/84%
- VENOM: THE LAST DANCE (10/25/24) – Domestic Opening $51.0M, Budget $120M, RT Critics/Audience 36%/79%
Unfortunately, VENOM: THE LAST DANCE opened this weekend with the lowest results of the series. While each of the two earlier films wound up earning $213M in domestic ticket sales, the third movie may struggle to reach $175M. Another cause for concern is a dramatic drop in worldwide grosses from the original VENOM which earned $643M to LET THERE BE CARNAGE which earned only $293M.
Much of that decline was due to the sequel not being released in China when it was amid the country’s severe COVID-19 lockdowns. VENOM had produced well in China, earning $269.2M. With THE LAST DANCE, Sony was sure to put the Chinese market back in play, premiering the film two days earlier than its U.S. and earning an estimated $45M in its first 5 days.
Critics have never been thrilled with the VENOM movies, awarding the new chapter a lowly 36% score on Rotten Tomatoes. At the same time, audiences have mostly enjoyed the storyline and special effects, giving a solid 79% score. THE LAST DANCE was produced on a budget of $120M, meaning that it will need to earn at least $300M in the worldwide box office to be profitable. With China in back the mix, we expect a strong international performance to put the series back on solid footing, despite relatively soft results in the domestic market.
Paramount’s SMILE 2 finished in second place with $9.4M in ticket sales, a decline of 59% from last weekend’s opening. After 10 days, the horror sequel has earned $40.7M domestically and $70.0M worldwide. Here is a comparison of the two SMILE films after 10 days.
SMILE vs. SMILE 2 after 10 Days
- SMILE (9/30/2022) – Domestic Opening $22.6M, Domestic 10-day $50.8M, Domestic Total $105.9M, Worldwide Total $217.4M, Budget $17M, RT Critics/Audience 80%/77%
- SMILE 2 (10/18/2024) – Domestic Opening $23.0M, Domestic 10-day $40.7M, Budget $28M, RT Critics/Audience 85%/82%
While the box office for the original SMILE dropped by only 18% in its second weekend, the second weekend of SMILE 2 was off by a much larger 59%. Note that SMILE in its second weekend went up against much weaker competition made up of the opening weekends of LYLE, LYLE, CROCODILE, which earned $11.4M, and AMSTERDAM, which earned $6.4M. SMILE 2 had to face a much more formidable foe in VENOM: THE LAST DANCE, which earned $51.0M.
Also concerning is the fact that only four days remain on the calendar before Halloween, whereas SMILE was released on 9/30 and at this point still had 22 days before Halloween that year. Despite opening slightly better, it now seems that SMILE 2 will fade quickly and wind up earning significantly less than the original. That being said, due to its quite reasonable $28M budget, we expect SMILE 2 to be profitable, which should give ample justification to forge ahead with more sequels to this franchise.
Focus Features’ mystery drama CONCLAVE opened in a tie for third place with $6.5M. The movie was directed by Edward Berger, whose last film ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT in 2022 was nominated for nine Academy Awards including Best Picture, and took home top honors in four categories highlighted by a win for Best International Feature Film.
Netflix funded that project and gave it a very limited theatrical run as a nod to the Academy and its requirements for awards consideration. Even though Berger was not nominated as Best Director, the film established his reputation as an up-and-coming filmmaker, delivering an expansive cinematic tour-de-force in a film produced on a modest $20M budget.
The cast for CONCLAVE is led by Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, and Isabella Rossellini. The screenplay was adapted from a 2016 novel of the same title written by Robert Harris. The movie dramatizes the quintessentially Catholic religious tradition in which after the death of a pope the College of Cardinals convenes to select his successor. During this process, the vote is divided across several potential candidates, and deliberations are further complicated when Cardinal Lawrence (Fiennes) uncovers secrets about each of the contenders.
The movie is receiving very high praise, with some predicting Oscar nominations for Best Picture, Best Actor for Fiennes, and Best Director for Berger. Critics have already awarded it a strong 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, with audiences also solid at 82%. Berger is to be congratulated for once again delivering a lavish film spectacle on a slim $20M budget.
As a result, it only needs to earn $50M in the worldwide box office to be profitable, which could be a stretch after earning $6.5M on its opening weekend. Traditionally, earnings at the box office have little impact on Academy voters, and we expect CONCLAVE to fare well against its peers in the upcoming awards season.
Universal’s THE WILD ROBOT dropped into a tie for third place with $6.5M, a decline of 36%. After 31 days, the animated original from DreamWorks has earned $111.4M domestic and $211.0M worldwide and still has a relatively competition-free run for family audiences until the 11/27 release of MOANA 2.
A super-positive reception from critics and audiences should help it continue its momentum. Universal did well to select a friendly slice of the release calendar in which to release THE WILD ROBOT, allowing it to reach its maximum potential.
WE LIVE IN TIME finished in fifth place for the second consecutive weekend, earning $4.8M and an increase of 15% over last weekend’s opening. Its total earnings to date stand at $11.8M domestic and $12.2M worldwide. While normally a 15% increase from one weekend to the next would be viewed as a solid achievement, in this case, the step up comes on the back of A24 choosing to expand its footprint to cover 2000 new locations this weekend.
When last weekend it played at 985 locations and earned an average of $4,162 per theatre, this weekend it played at 2,968 and saw its average drop to only $1,633 per venue. This must be disappointing for its creators, especially since the movie has been well-received by critics and audiences. With a $20M production budget, we are not expecting it to generate the $50M in worldwide sales necessary to make it a profitable release.
Where Are We as of 10/24/2024
After 42 weeks, the 2024 year-to-date box office has climbed to 87% of 2023 totals and 73% of 2019 totals at this same point in the year. 2024 vs. 2023.