The box office will be anchored by AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER, ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA and SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS with additional support from several other sequels
The first quarter of 2023 runs for thirteen weeks from Friday, January 6th through Thursday, April 6th. At the outset, most of the box office will come from the carryover of films that opened for Christmas. Last year, SPIDERMAN: NO WAY HOME enjoyed a merry Christmas that continued throughout Q1 of 2022. Spidey pulled in $167M in the first quarter, which was the second-highest gross for all films.
This year, AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER is in the best position to follow that pattern. We estimate that AVATAR 2 will earn an additional $140M during the quarter, which leaves this year’s Q1 slightly disadvantaged compared to last year’s tally.
On a positive note, 20 new movies are scheduled for wide release during the quarter, compared with only 13 films during the same period one year ago. Amazingly, there were no wide releases in four of the thirteen weeks of the first quarter last year. This year, we expect at least one new wide release will arrive in each of the thirteen weeks of the quarter. The “quantity over quality” may win the day this year, with moviegoers and theatre owners having a new product to enjoy every week.
Here is a rundown of the significant new releases for the quarter, with our estimate of the total gross each will generate during the period.
JANUARY
Q1 began on Friday, 1/6 with the release of M3GAN (Universal/Blumhouse, $55M), James Wan’s tale of artificial intelligence gone wrong. The following week starts with the Martin Luther King holiday weekend, which usually produces three bountiful days of moviegoing. Three new pictures open wide for the MLK holiday, beginning with the Gerald Butler actioner PLANE (Lionsgate, $30M), which tells the story of a mysterious fate that befalls the survivors of a plane crash.
A MAN CALLED OTTO (Sony, $35M) expands to comprehensive release status on MLK weekend after an introduction that began on 12/30 in a minimal number of theaters. Tom Hanks stars as a bitter and reclusive widower whose life is changed by rambunctious new neighbors who move in next door. On 1/20, the movie with the longest title of the quarter appears, the Japanese anime import THAT TIME I GOT REINCARNATED AS A SLIME THE MOVIE (Sony/Crunchyroll, $25M).
MISSING (Sony, $15M) will also debut on MLK weekend, telling the story of a person who disappears while on vacation but with additional complications because it takes place in Columbia, South America. Finally, January concludes with the 1/27 premiere of FEAR (Variance Films $20M), a horror flick set in a small hotel where friends gather for a getaway weekend.
FEBRUARY
Grosses pick up in February with the opening of the most significant pictures of the quarter. On 2/3, we get M. Night Shyamalan’s KNOCK AT THE CABIN (Universal, $45M). Dave Bautista stars in this story of a hostage situation centered in a remote cabin. The comedy 80 FOR BRADY (Paramount $25) also opens that week, in which a group of very mature women travels to the Super Bowl to meet their favorite player, Tom Brady.
Super Bowl weekend arrives on 2/10 when a niche specialty distributor steps up with CONSECRATION (IFC,$20M), a suspenseful drama about murder and sacrilege in a convent in Scotland. MAGIC MIKE: THE LAST DANCE (Warner Bros., $50M) begins as a limited release on 2/10, with a vast expansion to follow one week later. Filmmaker Steven Soderberg is back to direct the final film in the trilogy focused on a troupe of male strippers starring Channing Tatum.
On Wednesday, 2/15, MARLOWE (Open Road, $15M) hits screens, with Liam Neeson starring as detective Phillip Marlowe from Raymond Chandler’s classic crime novels. Finally, 2/17 brings ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA (Disney $225M), which should be the highest-grossing movie of the quarter. Paul Rudd returns as Ant-Man, one of the favorite comic-book characters from the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
February concludes with two new releases on 2/24. The first is COCAINE BEAR (Universal $35M), on a true story of a drug runner’s plane crash in 1985 and the insane antics of a bear that wound up eating the contraband. JESUS REVOLUTION (Lionsgate $15M) is the second new film to open that week, telling the story of a young man who falls in with a street preacher and struggling pastor who attempts to make religion relevant to the youth of the 1970s California counterculture.
MARCH
More sequels arrive in March, some having high-gross potential. Threes are wild on 3/3 when CREED III (United Artists, $95M) opens, the third movie in the series about Apollo Creed, who first appeared as Rocky Balboa’s boxing nemesis in the original ROCKY from 1976. Michael B. Jordan stars once again as Creed, this time taking on a boyhood friend in the ring. Finally, 3/10 brings SCREAM 6 (Paramount, $60M), yet another chapter of the SCREAM horror franchise that stars Courtney Cox against the notorious killer Ghostface.
The pictures opening late in the month will see a significant percentage of the overall grosses during the second quarter. To account for this, we indicate the dollars that they will earn during the first quarter as well as their overall tally. Another blockbuster sequel arrives on 3/17, SHAZAM 2 (Warner Bros., $115M Q1 / $160M Total). It’s the second movie outing for the DC Comics hero, once again played by Zach Levi. Saint Patrick’s Day weekend also includes 65 (Sony, $35M), starring Adam Driver in the Sci-Fi story of a space cruiser that crashes back home on Earth 65 million years after it left.
The run of sequels continues on 3/24 when JOHN WICK 4 (Warner Bros. $100M Q1 / $140M Total) arrives. Keanu Reeves stars as John Wick, facing his most powerful adversaries. Finally, the quarter ends with the 3/31 opening of the high-profile DUNGEONS & DRAGONS: HONOR AMONG THIEVES (Paramount $40M Q1 / $80M Total), starring Chris Pine in the action-adventure based upon the legendary role-playing game.
Here is a list of the estimated top ten movies from Q1 2023 compared with the actual top ten earners from Q1 2022.
CONCLUSION
We estimate that the top ten movies of Q1 2023 will produce 86% of the amount earned by the top ten during the same period as last year. In Q1 2022, the success of THE BATMAN helped all films earn a total of $1.2B, which was slightly less than the $1.3B grossed by all films in Q1 2021. Next week, we will publish our detailed review of results from Q4 of 2022.