DICK WALSH's Industry Update
Posted on Jun 16, 2024 @ 11:08 AM PT

INSIDE OUT 2 Delights with the Biggest Opening of 2024

The outlook for the summer movie season has brightened substantially after this weekend’s surprisingly strong opening of INSIDE OUT 2. Positivity is flowing after the Pixar animated sequel earned $155M in its first three days, the highest total for any movie opening this year. It follows last weekend’s successful debut for Will Smith and Martin Lawrence’s BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE.

All films on this Father’s Day weekend grossed $213.3M, 30% higher than last year’s total of $163.8M, which saw the dual openings of THE FLASH with $55.0M and ELEMENTAL with $29.6M. It was only the third time out of 24 weeks this year that the weekend box office was higher than a corresponding weekend from 2023.

INSIDE OUT 2’s opening was the largest for any animated movie since INCREDIBLES 2 earned $182.7M in from June 15-17, 2018. This is the 25^th Pixar movie to be introduced with an exclusive theatrical run and provides a welcome sign that the fortunes of the famous animation studio may be recovering after four disappointing years.

Much had been riding on the sequel to the original INSIDE OUT, which earned $90.4M in its first three days from June 19-21, 2015, and went on to a total of $356.9M domestic and $858.9M worldwide. Over the 29 years since TOY STORY amazed audiences, Pixar titles have amassed over $15B in worldwide ticket sales, with an average per title of $625M. Pixar movies had become one of the few sure things in Hollywood.

However, the studio took a hit during the pandemic after Disney decided to open three new Pixar films on Disney+, rather than following the traditional approach of starting with a theatrical exclusive. On the one hand, one could see why streaming may seem to be the “safer” choice, at a time when theatres were struggling mightily with the effects of COVID-19. Disney had invested billions in the launch of their in-house streaming platform and needed content to encourage customers to sign up.

The three Pixar movies that opened on Disney+ were SOUL (2020), LUCA (2021), and TURNING RED (2022) and all were well-received by critics. However, their online launch may have given some the impression that these movies were “made for TV” quality and had the effect of diminishing the reputation that Pixar had established.

This chart shows the box office performance of the five most recent Pixar films to open in theatres, covering a period before and after the pandemic.

Five Most Recent Disney/Pixar Theatrical Releases

ELEMENTAL (6/16/23) – Domestic Opening $29.6M, Domestic Total $154.4M, Worldwide Total $496.4M, Budget $200M, RT Critics/Audience 73%/93%
LIGHTYEAR (6/15/22) – Domestic Opening $50.6M, Domestic Total $118.3M, Worldwide Total $226.4M, Budget $200M, RT Critics/Audience 74%/84%
TOY STORY 4 (6/21/19) – Domestic Opening $120.9M, Domestic Total $434.0M, Worldwide Total $1,074M, Budget $200M, RT Critics/Audience 97%/94%
INCREDIBLES 2 (6/15/18) – Domestic Opening $182.7M, Domestic Total $608.6M, Worldwide Total $1,243M, Budget $200M, RT Critics/Audience 93%/84%
COCO (11/22/17) – Domestic Opening $50.8M, Domestic Total $210.5M, Worldwide Total $807.8M, Budget $175M, RT Critics/Audience 97%/94%

** Excludes ONWARD, which opened in theatres on March 6, 2020, and played only one week before COVID-19 shutdowns.

The three titles that opened before the pandemic performed much, much better than the two titles that opened after the pandemic. LIGHTYEAR’s $226.4M worldwide total was the lowest of any Pixar film in history. After ELEMENTAL’s opening of $29.6M, some wondered if Disney’s streaming-first strategy had done permanent damage to the Pixar brand.

However, ELEMENTAL recovered from its low opening to have a successful, extended run with box office declines over its first five weeks of only 35%, 27%, 23%, 12%, and 32%. ELEMENTAL wound up with $154.4M domestic and $496.4M worldwide, representing a very nice recovery after its disappointing start. A movie is considered to have held up well if its total box office is three times the amount of its opening weekend result. ELEMENTAL’s total box office was five times the amount of its opening weekend.

INSIDE OUT 2’s fabulous debut has put an end to all talk of the demise of Pixar. Its success could not have come at a better time for exhibitors, who have struggled through a difficult six months. INSIDE OUT 2 may wind up earning north of $500M domestic and $1B worldwide and become the top-grossing movie of the year.

The plot returns to the mind of Riley, the young girl who starred in the original movie. Riley is now a teenager, with new emotions entering the picture. Her traditional emotions of Joy, Sadness, Anger, Fear, and Disgust aren’t sure what to make of Anxiety when it arrives on the scene.

Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black, Diane Lane, and Kyle MacLachlan all return in their starring roles, as continuity from the original movie was considered important, hoping to avoid the negative fan reaction that accompanied LIGHTYEAR when the voice of Buzz Lightyear was changed from Tim Allen to Chris Evans.

Both critics and audiences have endorsed INSIDE OUT 2 with scores of 92% and 96% respectively. The full story will become clear in the weeks ahead, and INSIDE OUT 2 will have stiff competition for the family audience when Universal and Illumination’s DESPICABLE ME 4 arrives on July 4^th. However, we expect families will turn out in numbers for both films.

BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE finished in second place in its second weekend with $33.0M, a modest decline of 42%. Its 10-day total is $112.2M domestic and $178.1M worldwide, placing this film at 93% of the domestic total earned by BAD BOYS FOR LIFE, which had earned $120.7M domestic at this same point in its release. It is also outpacing BAD BOYS 2 from 2003, which earned $88.5M domestic in its first 10 days and went on to earn $273.3M worldwide.

BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE is on track to reach $300M in the global box office, and with a $100M production budget it will become profitable after passing $250M worldwide. It will also benefit from having limited competition at the box office for action seekers. This may go down as a summer of notable turnarounds, with the rehabilitation of Will Smith well underway and Pixar’s remarkable opening this weekend.

THE KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES continues to hold in very well by taking third place with $5.2M and dropping only 4%. This represents an amazing hold, with the title moving up two spots from last week’s fifth-place finish. After 38 days, it has amassed $157.8M domestic and $272.1M worldwide. For now, APES is still the #1 movie for the summer in the U.S. and Canada until next week when INSIDE OUT 2 will shoot past it.

Sony’s THE GARFIELD MOVIE came in fourth place by gathering up $5.0M in new ticket sales, a decline of 50%. After 24 days, it has earned $78.5M domestic and $196.3M worldwide and continues to outperform earlier movies featuring the lazy cat. This year’s animated version is approaching the high water mark of $203.1M worldwide earned by the first feature in the series, GARFIELD: THE MOVIE. Even with a massive opening for INSIDE OUT 2, THE GARFIELD MOVIE held up well and should continue to pull in audiences in the weeks ahead.

its second weekend, THE WATCHERS finished in fifth place with a gross of $3.7M, a decline of 48% from last week’s opening. After 10 days, it has registered $13.7M domestic and $19.3M worldwide. Because of a relatively rich production budget of $30M, THE WATCHERS will be one of the few horror films of the year that will not be profitable from its theatrical box office, since it would need to earn $75M in global sales to reach that mark. We expect that this movie will wind up with a global total of around $35M.

Three of this weekend’s top six movies are targeted at families, demonstrating the boundless capacity of this audience to turn out for quality. INSIDE OUT 2, THE GARFIELD MOVIE and IF represented 77% of the total domestic box office.

Where Are We as of 6/13

After 23 weeks, the 2024 year-to-date box office stands at 72% compared to those same weeks in 2023 and 58% of the total at this time in 2019.

Where Are We as of 2024-06-13

Cineworld Plots Blockbuster Sale...

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Governing law. Any and all controversies, disputes, demands, counts, claims or causes of action between you and SCREENDOLLARS and our employees, agents, successors, or assigns, regarding or relating to this Agreement or the Services will exclusively be governed by the internal laws of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, without regard to its choice of law rules and without regard to conflicts of law principles except that the arbitration provisions will be governed by the Federal Arbitration Act. The United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods will not apply to this Agreement.
Notice.Where SCREENDOLLARS requires that you provide an e-mail address, you are responsible for providing us with your most current e-mail address. In the event that the last e-mail address you provided to us is not valid, or for any reason is not capable of delivering to any notices required or permitted by this Agreement, our dispatch of the e-mail containing such notice will nonetheless constitute effective notice. You may give notice to us at the address set forth in Section 8.8. Such notice shall be deemed given when received by us by letter delivered by nationally recognized overnight delivery service or first class postage prepaid mail at that address.
Entire Agreement.This Agreement, including the documents referred to herein, constitutes the entire agreement between you and us regarding the use of the Services. Our failure to exercise or enforce any right or provision of this Agreement will not operate as a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of this Agreement is, for any reason, held to be invalid or unenforceable, the other provisions of this Agreement will be unimpaired and the invalid or unenforceable provision will be deemed modified so that it is valid and enforceable to the maximum extent permitted by law. Your relationship to SCREENDOLLARS is that of an independent contractor, and neither party is an agent or partner of the other. This Agreement, and your rights and obligations herein, may not be assigned, subcontracted, or otherwise transferred by you without SCREENDOLLARS’s prior written consent, and any attempted assignment, subcontract, or transfer in violation of the foregoing will be null and void. The terms and conditions set forth in this Agreement will be binding upon assignees.
Copyright/Trademark Information.Copyright © 2020, Screendollars, LLC. All rights reserved. All trademarks, logos and service marks (“Marks”) displayed on or in the Services are our property or the property of third parties. You may not use these Marks without our prior written consent or the consent of such third party.
Contact Information:SCREENDOLLARS, LLC. | 33 Miller Hill Road, Dover, MA 02030 | (978) 494-4150, contactus@screendollars.com.