Hollywood’s 2023 labor strikes left the cupboard bare this weekend for both exhibitors and moviegoers. Without any substantial new wide releases, ticket sales for all films came in at a paltry $64.6M, the fifth-lowest total of the year.
Until this point, the May lineup of movies had been solid, from THE FALL GUY on 5/3, KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES on 5/10, IF on 5/17, and both FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA and THE GARFIELD MOVIE on 5/24. Last year on this same weekend, Sony unveiled SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE with an impressive $120.7M in its first three days.
The total for all films was a robust $205.2M. In 2019, GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS opened with $47.8M complimented nicely by ROCKETMAN which earned $25.7M in its debut. In 2017, WONDER WOMAN opened with an excellent $103.5M. Even in 2022 when there were no new major titles, TOP GUN: MAVERICK in its second weekend produced a phenomenal $90.0M. What exhibitors would give to see similar results this year?
Since the beginning of the year, it has been clear that this late May/early June weekend was an opportunity for a studio to step in with a high-profile movie that would benefit from a lack of competition. The only reasonably wide releases on the schedule this week were Sony and Crunchyroll’s anime feature HAIKYUU!! THE DUMPSTER BATTLE – that wound up coming in seventh place with $3.5M at 1,119 locations – and Roadside Attraction’s art house title SUMMER CAMP finished eleventh with $1.1M at 1,787 locations. Because of the strike, studios were not ready to take advantage of the opportunity.
After last weekend produced the lowest Memorial Day box office in 25 years, $101.7M for all films, this weekend was even more alarming with a total of $64.6M, only 31% of the same weekend last year. It was more like the low totals at the beginning of the year than one would expect from the start of the summer movie season. Next week should bring new signs of life with the opening of Sony’s action sequel BAD BOYS: RIDE OR DIE, which we are forecasting to bring in $50M over its first three days.
THE GARFIELD MOVIE in its second weekend had the highest gross at $14.0M, a modest drop of 42% from last weekend. This brings the 10-day total to $51.6M domestic and $134.5M worldwide. This gross is well ahead of the franchise leader, the live-action GARFIELD THE MOVIE from 2004 that earned $42.4M domestically in its first 10 days.
By running 22% ahead of the 2004 film, this year’s animated version is well on its way to setting a new domestic record for movies featuring the ornery cat. THE GARFIELD MOVIE’s success may have been lost amidst all the sour stories focused on the Memorial Day box office overall. Given its $60M production budget, THE GARFIELD MOVIE will almost certainly wind up being profitable from its theatrical run.
Finishing in a surprisingly strong second place was Paramount’s animated family film IF, which earned $10.8M in its third weekend and fell only 33% from last weekend. The 17-day total has now risen to $80.4M domestic and $124.8M worldwide. While initially labeled as a financial bust, IF has become the seventh-highest-grossing movie in the domestic market for 2024 and ninth ninth-highest worldwide.
After adding to these totals in June, it may wind up with $100M domestic and $150M worldwide. It was made on a production budget of $110M, meaning that it would have to earn approximately $265M to be profitable.
This film was an earnest attempt by director John Krasinski to create a fresh new take on family films, and it seems to have reached a significant audience. It also earned an 88% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes. Krasinski and Paramount may choose to follow this by making a sequel, but they would be well-advised to do so with a smaller budget so it can be a profitable project as well.
FURIOSA: A MAD MAX SAGA finished in third place with $10.75M, a decline of 59% from last weekend’s opening. After 10 days, the action sequel has earned $49.7M domestically and $88.6M worldwide. This film opened with $26.3M, only 58% of the opening total for the franchise leader MAD MAX: FURY ROAD in 2015.
After 10 days, FURIOSA has earned 56% of FURY ROAD’s domestic total of $88.1M at this same point. It was an expensive movie to produce with an estimated budget of $168M, and it seems clear that FURIOSA will finish well short of the $420M worldwide necessary to be profitable.
Earlier this week, Variety reported that plans to move forward with the next chapter MAD MAX: WASTELAND would most likely be shelved after FURY ROAD’s disappointing opening. Falling into third place behind THE GARFIELD MOVIE and IF won’t help the cause.
KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES finished in fourth place with $8.8M, a drop of 34%. After 24 days, the APES sequel has earned $140M domestic and $321.8M worldwide. It is approaching the $362.2M worldwide that the 2001 reboot THE PLANET OF THE APES generated in 2001, which stands as the fourth highest-grossing movie in the famous film franchise. DAWN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES holds the record among these films, having earned an amazing $710.6M worldwide back in 2014.
THE FALL GUY held on to its top-5 status for another week, coming in a $4.2M. Its drop of only 30% was the best hold of any movie in the top 10 this weekend. After 31 days, the movie has earned $80.3M domestic and $154.4M worldwide. When the movie was first released, much was made about its lack of success even though it featured A-listers Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt and was chock full of action sequences and special effects.
Since then, a sub-plot in the success of the film has been its ability to continue to sell movie tickets even after it became available to watch at home on PVOD services. Last weekend THE FALL GUY dropped by only 17% and this weekend it was only 30%.
This may encourage studios to reduce the exclusive screening window for theatres, to tap into simultaneous revenue streams from the box office and streaming. Of course, this is the last thing theatre owners want to hear, especially after slogging through a difficult first half of the 2024 box office.
WHERE ARE WE AS OF 5/30
21 weeks, the 2024 year-to-date box office stands at 76% compared to those same weeks in 2023 and 58% of the total at this time in 2019.