• DICK WALSH's Industry Update
  • Posted on Dec 01, 2024 @ 11:21 AM PT

11/29-12/1: MOANA 2, WICKED & GLADIATOR II Host Moviegoers at a Record-Setting Thanksgiving Feast

Disney’s animated MOANA 2 led all films with a spectacular 3-day opening weekend box office of $135.5M.  After adding to that the second-weekend results from WICKED at $80.0M and GLADIATOR II at $30.7M, this year’s Thanksgiving weekend set a record of $272.0M for domestic ticket sales.

The previous record for the post-Thanksgiving weekend was set in 2018, when $216.5M was earned from November 23-25 on the strength of Disney’s RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET with $56.2M in its opening weekend, helped by CREED 2’s $35.6M opening and the third weekend of THE GRINCH with $30.4M.  The 5-day total from Wednesday to Sunday was $420.0M, also a new record and significantly higher than the $315.6M earned in 2018.

This is an extremely positive development, especially since studios have a long history of releasing top commercial movies in late November to take full advantage of the Thanksgiving holiday.  This weekend will go down as one of three key turning points in the 2024 box office.  They are:

  • On June 14th, INSIDE OUT 2 opened by earning $154.2M domestic and went on to earn $653M domestic and $1.70B worldwide, becoming the highest-grossing animated film of all time.
  • On July 26th, DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE opened with $211.4M domestic and wound up grossing $636.7M domestic and $1.34B worldwide, making it the highest-grossing R-rated film in history.
  • From November 29 – December 1, MOANA 2, WICKED, and GLADIATOR II generated $246.2M in ticket sales, powering the weekend to the highest post-Thanksgiving total ever.

As it turns out, when the industry is not forced to contend with a once-in-a-century pandemic or the aftereffects of a long-term labor strike in Hollywood, it can produce positive results.  Moreover, we are optimistic about the prospects for new releases on the calendar for 2025 and 2026.  Therefore, it seems fitting on this weekend to be thankful for some of the positive developments that our industry is now enjoying.

Disney’s MOANA 2 caught a monster wave to land in first place, taking in $135.5M in its opening weekend.  This is a spectacular debut, especially when you consider the formidable competition it faced from last weekend’s box office champion WICKED.  MOANA 2 has set a new record as the highest-grossing movie ever on Thanksgiving weekend, blowing past the $86M earned by FROZEN 2 in 2019.

A sequel to MOANA, which earned $56.6M in 2016 on this same holiday weekend, MOANA 2 was directed by David Derrick Jr., who was a storyboard artist on the original film.  The movie reunites the two leads from the first Moana, Auli’i Cravalho as Moana, and Dwayne Johnson as Maui. MOANA 2 also introduces two new leading characters, Matangi, a mysterious potential threat to Moan, and Nalo, the god of storms. The events of the movie take place three years after those in the original, with an exploration of new Islands and themes from Polynesian mythology.

Reviewers are having a mixed reaction to the sequel, giving it only a 65% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes, while moviegoers have been more impressed with an 87% audience rating.  The film is praised for its stunning visuals, showcasing significant advancements in animation over the past eight years, particularly in the rendering of water and character expressions.

Fans of the original will appreciate how the sequel continues to track Moana’s journey and offers up several heartfelt moments. However, critics have commented that MOANA 2 falls short in the musical department, with its songs lacking the catchy qualities of those from the original. This has been noted as a key disappointment since the music was a vital part of the first movie.

Character development may also be a bit lacking, with some new cast additions described as underdeveloped or shallow. Despite these shortcomings, the movie holds up as legit family entertainment, particularly for younger audiences, and recreates most of the adventurous spirit of the first film. Here is a quick comparison of the box office beginning for both movies.

MOANA vs. MOANA 2

  • MOANA (11/23/2016) – Opening Domestic 3 Days $56.6M, Opening Domestic 5 Days $82M, Total Domestic $248.8M, Total Worldwide $643.3M, Budget $150M, RT Critics/Audience 95%/89%
  • MOANA 2 (11/25/2024) – Opening Domestic 3 Days $135.5M, Opening Domestic 5 Days $221M, Budget $150M, RT Critics/Audience 65%/87%

After five days, MOANA 2 has earned more than 2 ½ times the amount that its predecessor did in that same period.  MOANA itself was a profitable movie for Disney, winding up with $643M globally which was more than 4X the $150M that the studio invested in its production.

MOANA 2 kept to a similar $150M production budget, which will wind up creating an even more profitable result.  Despite adjacent competition from WICKED, MOANA 2 will have direct rivals for the core family audience until MUFASA: THE LION KING and SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3 open on December 20th.

Universal’s WICKED finished in second place, with $80M additional in its second weekend, a decline of only 29%.  This brings WICKED’s 10-day domestic total to $262.4M and its worldwide box office to $323.6M.  Last weekend we compared the openings of WICKED and BARBIE and we thought that it would be interesting to continue that comparison, now after ten days.

WICKED vs. BARBIE after 10 Days

  • WICKED (11/22/2024) – Opening Domestic $114M, 2nd Weekend Domestic $80M (-29%), 10 Day Domestic $262.4M, Budget $150M, RT Critics/Audience 89%/96%
  • BARBIE (7/21/2023) – Opening Domestic $162M, 2nd Weekend Domestic $93M (-43%), 10 Day Domestic $351.4M, Total Domestic $636.2M, Total Worldwide $1.45B, Budget $145M, RT Critics/Audience 88%/83%

After WICKED produced 70% of BARBIE’s total over its first three days, the ratio rose to 75% after 10 days.  This will wind up being the high water mark for WICKED in this comparison, as the early December calendar is not as fruitful as last year’s late summer frame that BARBIE was able to enjoy.

At this point, WICKED has produced more than most in the industry had expected, lifting the Thanksgiving period to record heights.  While WICKED still has a bright future and will continue to play at most of its current locations throughout the month, as Ken might say, “Only Barbie is Barbie.”

Paramount’s GLADIATOR II finished with $30.7M in its second weekend, a decline of 44% from its opening numbers.  This brings its 10-day totals to $111.2M domestic and $308.9M worldwide.  Even with a third-place finish, the sequel has played an essential role in pushing the weekend to record-setting numbers.

While MOANA 2 and WICKED skew to younger and female audiences, GLADIATOR II appeals to an older male demographic based on its bare-knuckle action and R-rating.  Here is a comparison after 10 days between GLADIATOR II and the original GLADIATOR from 2000.

GLADIATOR vs. GLADIATOR II after 10 Days

  • GLADIATOR (5/5/2000) – Opening Domestic $34.8M 2nd Weekend Domestic $24.6M (-29%), 10 Day Domestic $73.7M, Total Domestic $187.7M, Total Worldwide $465.5B, Budget $103M, RT Critics/Audience 80%/87%
  • GLADIATOR inflation adjusted – Opening Domestic $63.8M, 2nd Weekend Domestic $45.1M, 10 Day Domestic $135.1M, Total Domestic $343.9M, Total Worldwide $853.3B
  • GLADIATOR II (11/22/2024) – Opening Domestic $55M, 2nd Weekend Domestic $30.7M (-44%), 10 Day Domestic $111.2M, Budget $250M, RT Critics/Audience 71%/83%

At first glance, results from GLADIATOR II would seem to be well ahead of those from GLADIATOR.  However, after adjusting for inflation over the past 24 years, GLADIATOR II comes up slightly short of the original.  Ridley Scott has suggested that he is open to the possibility of a GLADIATOR III, though it will depend on the success of the current movie.  He has already reported to be working on ideas, drawing some inspiration from Francis Ford Coppola’s THE GODFATHER trilogy.

Scott is working on a storyline in which the main protagonist, likely Paul Mescal’s Lucius from GLADIATOR II, struggles to manage the power that he did not ask for, in a way that is reminiscent of the Michael Corleone character in THE GODFATHER.  Another factor to consider is whether Scott will have the stamina to make another feature, after turning 87 years old on Saturday.

In fourth place is Amazon/MGM’s holiday-themed RED ONE, which in its third weekend took in $12.9M, a decline of only 2%.  Its 17-day domestic box office stands at $76.1M with a worldwide total of $148.9M.  Despite facing an extremely competitive slate of films, RED ONE has benefited from a strong audience score of 91% on Rotten Tomatoes and perhaps even overflow sales after some moviegoers may have been not been able to buy tickets for WICKED or MOANA 2.

The film will not be profitable from its final box office numbers, considering its massive $250M production budget, but we will leave it to Amazon’s accountants to factor in the movie’s financial impact on Amazon Prime subscriptions.  Meanwhile, exhibitors are pleased with its contribution to the November box office.

Lionsgate’s THE BEST CHRISTMAS PAGEANT EVER climbed back into fifth place as the holiday picture took in $3.3M, a decline of 5% from last weekend.  This brings its 24-day total to $32M domestic and, with limited international contribution thus far.  Lionsgate should be happy with this $10M production, released in a relatively soft period at the beginning of November and since bringing in more than three times that amount at the box office.

Where Are We as of 11/28/2024

After last week’s solid performance, the 2024 box office picked up 3 percentage points in week 47 to now stand at 89% compared with 2023 totals and 73% compared with 2019.

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    10. Survival of Agreement.This Arbitration Agreement will survive the termination of your relationship with SCREENDOLLARS.
    11. Notwithstanding any provision in this Agreement to the contrary, we agree that if SCREENDOLLARS makes any future material change to this Arbitration Agreement, you may reject that change within thirty (30) You and SCREENDOLLARS acknowledge and agree that Apple, and Apple’s subsidiaries, are third-party beneficiaries of the Agreement as related to your license of the App Store Sourced Application, and that, upon your acceptance of the terms and conditions of the Agreement, Apple will have the right (and will be deemed to have accepted the right) to enforce the Agreement as related to your license of the App Store Sourced Application against you as a third-party beneficiary thereof.days of such change becoming effective by writing to us at the following address: contactus@screendollars.com.
    12. Export.The Services may be subject to U.S. export control laws and may be subject to export or import regulations in other countries. You agree not to export, reexport, or transfer, directly or indirectly, any U.S. technical data acquired from SCREENDOLLARS, or any products utilizing such data, in violation of U.S. export laws or regulations.
    13. Electronic communications.The communications between you and SCREENDOLLARS may use electronic means, whether you visit or use our Services or send e-mails to us, or whether SCREENDOLLARS posts notices on or in the Services or communicates with you via e-mail. For contractual purposes, you (a) consent to receive communications from SCREENDOLLARS in an electronic form; and (b) agree that all terms and conditions, agreements, notices, disclosures, and other communications that SCREENDOLLARS provides to you electronically satisfy any legal requirement that such communications would satisfy if it were be in a hardcopy writing. The foregoing does not affect your statutory rights, including but not limited to the Electronic Signatures in Global and National Commerce Act at 15 U.S.C. section 7001 et. Seq (“E-Sign”).
    14. Governing law. Any and all controversies, disputes, demands, counts, claims or causes of action between you and SCREENDOLLARS and our employees, agents, successors, or assigns, regarding or relating to this Agreement or the Services will exclusively be governed by the internal laws of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, without regard to its choice of law rules and without regard to conflicts of law principles except that the arbitration provisions will be governed by the Federal Arbitration Act. The United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods will not apply to this Agreement.
    15. Notice.Where SCREENDOLLARS requires that you provide an e-mail address, you are responsible for providing us with your most current e-mail address. In the event that the last e-mail address you provided to us is not valid, or for any reason is not capable of delivering to any notices required or permitted by this Agreement, our dispatch of the e-mail containing such notice will nonetheless constitute effective notice.  You may give notice to us at the address set forth in Section 8.8.  Such notice shall be deemed given when received by us by letter delivered by nationally recognized overnight delivery service or first class postage prepaid mail at that address.
    16. Entire Agreement.This Agreement, including the documents referred to herein, constitutes the entire agreement between you and us regarding the use of the Services. Our failure to exercise or enforce any right or provision of this Agreement will not operate as a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of this Agreement is, for any reason, held to be invalid or unenforceable, the other provisions of this Agreement will be unimpaired and the invalid or unenforceable provision will be deemed modified so that it is valid and enforceable to the maximum extent permitted by law. Your relationship to SCREENDOLLARS is that of an independent contractor, and neither party is an agent or partner of the other. This Agreement, and your rights and obligations herein, may not be assigned, subcontracted, or otherwise transferred by you without SCREENDOLLARS’s prior written consent, and any attempted assignment, subcontract, or transfer in violation of the foregoing will be null and void. The terms and conditions set forth in this Agreement will be binding upon assignees.
    17. Copyright/Trademark Information.Copyright © 2020, Screendollars, LLC. All rights reserved. All trademarks, logos and service marks (“Marks”) displayed on or in the Services are our property or the property of third parties. You may not use these Marks without our prior written consent or the consent of such third party.
    18. Contact Information:SCREENDOLLARS, LLC. | 33 Miller Hill Road, Dover, MA 02030 | (978) 494-4150, contactus@screendollars.com.

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