As expected, RED ONE from Amazon/MGM won the weekend by earning $34.1M at 4,032 theatres across North America, lifting the total for all films to $73.6M. This was markedly lower than the same weekend last year which produced $115.5M, on the strength of openings from THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS & SNAKES which earned $44.6M, and TROLLS BAND TOGETHER with $31.2M.
The holiday box office will brighten substantially with next Friday’s arrival of WICKED from Universal and GLADIATOR II from Paramount, a powerful one-two punch not seen since last summer’s side-by-side openings of BARBIE and OPPENHEIMER, which showered exhibitors with $311M in its first three days and was the top-grossing weekend of the year.
What’s more, Disney’s MOANA 2 opens five days later on Wednesday 11/27, and could wind up as the highest-grossing movie of the three. The two-week surge over Thanksgiving will be a massive improvement compared with last year and will help narrow the 2024 box office deficit.
RED ONE is an unabashed attempt to create a new Christmas holiday franchise, with Amazon sparing no expense after spending an estimated $250M on its production. The theatrical release precedes its eventual availability on Amazon Prime Video, where it is expected to be available starting in mid-December. Its director Jake Kasdan is no stranger to big budget affairs, having been at the helm for JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE (2017) and JUMANJI: THE NEXT LEVEL (2019), with both films having budgets exceeding $100M.
His JUMANJI films went on to earn worldwide grosses of $965.2M and $801.7M respectively. Kasdan is the son of the legendary Hollywood writer and director Lawrence Kasdan, who created classic films including BODY HEAT (1981), THE BIG CHILL (1983), and SILVERADO (1985). The younger Kasdan has already worked with Dwayne Johnson in the JUMANJI films.
In addition, the current cast is rounded out by Chris Evans (CAPTAIN AMERICA), Lucy Liu (CHARLIE’S ANGELS), and J.K. Simmons who won the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor in WHIPLASH (2014). The screenplay was written by Chris Morgan, an action film specialist with seven FAST & FURIOUS movies to his credit.
After assembling this “dream team” of talent, all that remained was to make the movie. The storyline brings together Jack O’Malley, a rough and ready computer hacker played by Chris Evans, with Callum Drift, the no-nonsense head of North Pole security played by Dwayne Johnson. After Santa (J.K. Simmons) is kidnapped on Christmas Eve by a malevolent team of operatives, O’Malley and Drift set out to find and rescue Saint Nick.
The storyline tries to infuse themes of Christmas spirit into an action-packed movie. Critics have not been impressed, giving RED ONE a sour 33% score on Rotten Tomatoes. Some critics complain that the movie feels chaotic and unfocused, as it struggles to weave in laughs and a feel-good Christmas message with a complicated, action-driven story.
However, the all-important audience rating is much better at 89%. The film has no realistic chance of earning the $625M in worldwide box office that would make it break even from cinema ticket sales, so Amazon will need to make it up over time through streaming subscriptions and the long-term power of sequels.
RED ONE’s box office will also be limited by the upcoming onslaught of competition, with WICKED, GLADIATOR II, and MOANA 2 all opening in the next 10 days. This begs the question, why did Amazon decide to open RED ONE in the U.S. on 11/15 when earlier dates were available?
Last weekend’s #1 grossing movie was VENOM: THE LAST DANCE which earned only $15.9M in its third weekend. One can’t help but think that it would have been better to open RED ONE earlier in the month, giving two full weeks to make hay without having to face significant competition.
Sony and Marvel’s VENOM: THE LAST DANCE fell into second place with $7.4M, a decline of 54%, after taking first place in each of its first three weekends. The third chapter in the series continues to lag behind its two previous entries. Here is how the three VENOM films stack up after 24 days.
VENOM Series Box Office Results
- VENOM (10/5/18) – Domestic Opening $80.3M, Domestic 2nd Weekend $35.0M (-56%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $18.0M (-49%), Domestic 4th Weekend $10.7M (-41%), Domestic 24-Day $187.1M, Domestic Total $213.5M, Worldwide Total $856.1M, Budget $100M, RT Critics/Audience 30%/80%
- VENOM: LET THERE BE CARNAGE (10/1/21) – Domestic Opening $90.0M, Domestic 2nd Weekend $31.8M (-65%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $16.5M (-48%), Domestic 4th Weekend $9.3M (-44%), Domestic 24-Day $182.0M, Domestic Total $213.6M, Worldwide Total $506.8M, Budget $110M, RT Critics/Audience 57%/84%
- VENOM: THE LAST DANCE (10/25/24) – Domestic Opening $51.0M, Domestic 2nd Weekend $26.1M (-49%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $16.2M (-37%), Domestic 4th Weekend $7.4M (-54%), Domestic 24-Day $127.6M, Budget $120M, RT Critics/Audience 41%/81%
Lionsgate’s THE BEST CHRISTMAS PAGEANT EVER finished in third place this weekend with $5.4M a decline of 50% from last weekend’s opening. After 10 days, the film has brought in $20.0M domestically and has not yet been released internationally. As with Amazon and RED ONE, Lionsgate is also hoping that its film can become a Christmas tradition, based on re-runs for this edition but also the potential for profitable sequels ahead.
The two movies have wildly divergent budgets, with RED ONE costing $250M to make whereas THE BEST CHRISTMAS PAGENT EVER came in at only $10M, or 1/25th of that amount. It’s an increasingly common Hollywood story that movies with low production budgets are profitable, compared to big-budget gambles that wind up becoming financial losers. While it is too early to predict final numbers for these films, Lionsgate is surely breathing easier than Amazon at this point.
Finishing fourth is HERETIC, which earned $5.2M and dropped 52%. After 10 days, the A24 horror film has landed $20.4M domestically and $26.6M worldwide. Here is how this film compares to the distributor’s history of high-grossing horror films.
A24’s Top-Grossing Horror Films
- TALK TO ME (7/26/2023) – Domestic Opening $10.4M, Domestic 10-Day $22.2M, Domestic Total $48.3M, Worldwide Total $92.2M, Budget $4.5M, RT Critics/Audience 94%/82%
- HEREDITARY (6/8/2018) – Domestic Opening $13.6M, Domestic 10-Day $27.0M, Domestic Total $44.1M, Worldwide Total $87.8M, Budget $10M, RT Critics/Audience 90%/71%
- MIDSOMMAR (7/3/2019) – Domestic Opening $6.6M, Domestic 10-Day $16.0M, Domestic Total $27.4M, Worldwide Total $48.1M, Budget $9M, RT Critics/Audience 83%/63%
- THE WITCH (2/19/2016) – Domestic Opening $8.8M, Domestic 10-Day $16.7M, Domestic Total $25.1M, Worldwide Total $40.4M, Budget $4M, RT Critics/Audience 91%/60%
- MAXXXINE (7/5/2024) – Domestic Opening $6.7M, Domestic 10-Day $11.8M, Domestic Total $15.1M, Worldwide Total $22.5M, Budget $9M, RT Critics/Audience 72%/77%
- HERETIC (11/8/2024) – Domestic Opening $11.1M, Domestic 10-Day $20.4M, Budget $15M, RT Critics/Audience 92%/77%
After 10 days, HERETIC’s $20.4M is the third-highest of the bunch, falling short of HEREDITARY’s $27.0M and TALK TO ME’s $22.2M. With an increase in foot traffic during the upcoming holiday weekends, HERETIC has a chance to move up in the ranks. It is already guaranteed to wind up as a profitable project for the indie distributor.
Universal’s THE WILD ROBOT took in $4.3M, a decline of 35% compared to last weekend’s results. After a very successful 52-day run, the original animated movie has earned $137.8M domestic and $302.9M worldwide and we project that it will finish with $145M domestic and $315M worldwide. This film has made the most of a soft competitive release schedule, with little direct competition from other family-oriented films.
Where Are We as of 11/14/24
After 45 weeks, the 2024 year-to-date box office has climbed to 87% of 2023 totals and 72% of 2019 totals at this same point in the year.