Continuing this year’s trend of delivering improved results compared to last year, the three-day Thanksgiving weekend grossed $115.0M at the box office, 34% higher than last year’s disappointing $85.8M over the same holiday weekend.
The positive result should reassure film executives that the ten-day frame around Thanksgiving still has the potential to be one of the most lucrative of the year. While last year’s Thanksgiving slate left much to be desired, this year featured a wider range of appealing titles, and moviegoers responded accordingly.
THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS & SNAKES finished in first place for the second consecutive weekend by earning $28.8M, a relatively modest drop of 35%. It will likely continue to run in first or second place until WONKA opens on December 15th.
SONGBIRDS & SNAKES has earned $98.4M in its ten days in theatres, roughly one-third the amount earned by the series box office leader THE HUNGER GAMES: CATCHING FIRE, which grossed $296.2M domestic in its first ten days in 2012.
Even with relatively light competition over the next few weeks, SONGBIRDS & SNAKES may still struggle with profitability, since Lionsgate spent $100M to make the movie. The industry rule of thumb is for a movie’s worldwide box office to be 2.5 times its production budget to break even financially.
It now appears that the worldwide box office for SONGBIRDS & SNAKES will come in only slightly higher than that amount ($100M X 2.5 = $250M). If it were to reach this level, it may avoid the same fate that has afflicted the superhero franchises of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) and the DC Extended Universe (DCEU).
Apple and Sony’s NAPOLEON took in $20.4M to take second place. Ridley Scott takes 2 hours and 38 minutes to tell his version of the famous French emperor’s story. Scott’s film joins other leading contenders for this year’s Best Picture Oscar, together with Christopher Nolan’s OPPENHEIMER and Martin Scorsese’s KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON. Here is a quick comparison of these three potential nominees:
Oppenheimer
* Released By Universal Studios, Directed by Christopher Nolan
* Release Date 7/21/23, Rated R, 3h runtime, Historical Drama
* Budget $100M, Days in Release 129, Domestic Gross To-Date $325.3M
Killers of the Flower Moon
* Released by Paramount, Produced by Apple, Directed by Martin Scorsese
* Release Date 10/23/23, Rated R, 3h 26m runtime, Historical Drama
* Budget $200M, Days in Release 38, Domestic Gross To-Date $65.6M
Napoleon
* Released by Sony Pictures, Produced by Apple, Directed by Ridley Scott
* Release Date 11/22/23, Rated R, 2h 38m runtime, Historical Drama
* Budget $200M, Dates in Release 5, Domestic Gross To-Date $32.5M
Ridley Scott’s NAPOLEON is an original and personal look at the general’s rapid and ruthless rise to power, focusing on his volatile relationship with Josephine, his one true love.
The movie’s portrayal of famous battles is spectacular and offers great insight into Napoleon’s brilliance as a military commander. NAPOLEON has not received a warm reception from the public, receiving a mere 62% critics score and 59% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes.
That being said, over his 46 years as a filmmaker, Ridley Scott has established a reputation that rivals that of Christopher Nolan or Martin Scorsese. The Academy has nominated Scott three times for Best Director honors, and he has created classics that include ALIEN (1979), BLADE RUNNER (1982), THELMA & LOUISE (1991), GLADIATOR (2000), HANNIBAL (2001), BLACKHAWK DOWN (2001), AMERICAN GANGSTER (2007) and THE MARTIAN (2015).
His movies have grossed $1.8B at the worldwide box office, with THE MARTIAN as the top earner with $228.4M domestically and $630.6M worldwide. After five days, NAPOLEON has grossed $32.5M domestically and will need to sustain its earnings throughout the holidays to reach profitability, after Apple spent $200M on its production.
Like KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON which was another $200M film financed by Apple, a key measure of its success will be if it can attract a significant number of new subscribers to Apple TV+. However, proceeds from the box office are a start down that path, and its distribution in theatres has increased the visibility with both the public and awards organizations.
Disney lived up to its tradition by delivering an animated film offering for Thanksgiving. WISH earned $19.5M in its first three days, which was only good enough for a third-place finish at the box office.
While Disney had hoped for more, this is an improvement over last year’s disastrous debut of STRANGE WORLD which only earned $12.1M in its opening weekend at the same time last year.
WISH is co-directed by Chris Buck, the director behind two of the most successful animated films of all time, FROZEN and FROZEN 2, which together sold $2.7B worldwide. WISH’s story revolves around Asha, a romantic girl whose wishes are so powerful that they are answered by a cosmic force, a little ball of boundless energy called Star.
They join forces to face the dastardly King Magnifico, voiced by Chris Pine. Critics are not thrilled with the result, offering only a 50% score on Rotten Tomatoes while moviegoers were somewhat more enchanted, weighing in with an 81% audience score. After five days, WISH has grossed $31.7M, which compares somewhat more favorably with last year’s $18.1M from STRANGE WORLD at this point.
WISH’s burden is that this opening is so low that there is little chance it can earn enough in the weeks ahead to match its $ 175M-$200M production budget. In addition, WISH is splitting the family audience with TROLLS BAND TOGETHER, which opened last week. This competition makes life difficult for both films, especially for the much more costly WISH.
TROLLS BAND TOGETHER finished in fourth place with $17.5M, a drop of only 42% from last weekend’s opening. Universal will be pleased with the result, having already earned $64.5M in its first ten days.
Both TROLLS and WISH will share the spotlight until Universal opens MIGRATION on December 22nd. TROLLS may outperform WISH, which would be a stunning success given that it cost only $95M to make, which is roughly one-half the amount Disney spent on WISH.
Sony and TriStar’s THANKSGIVING took fifth place by earning $7.2M, a drop from last weekend of only 31%. The picture has earned $24.2M domestically, which has already exceeded its modest production cost of $15M. Perhaps yet another sign of the times is that THANKSGIVING is the only film out of the Top 5 for this weekend that will wind up being profitable.
This is the core challenge that the industry faces in 2024. While movie theatres cannot survive by playing only low-budget films, studios cannot continue to spend hundreds of millions to make films that do not earn enough to offset those costs.
Where Are We as of 11/23
After 46 weeks, the year-to-date box office stands at 122% compared with this same point in 2022, and 84% compared with 2019.