After last weekend produced the largest box office of the year at $139.9M, turnstiles slowed down this weekend with total ticket sales of $88.2M. One year ago on this weekend, SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS led all films with $30.1M in its opening three days. This year, the top two movies were holdovers KUNG FU PANDA 4 and DUNE: PART TWO, with Lionsgate’s ARTHUR THE KING as the only new movie in wide release.
Looking ahead, energy will come from Sony’s 3/21 release of GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE and Warner Bros.’ 3/28 release of GODZILLA X KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE. Both movies have $100M+ potential for their domestic runs. However, it will be a tall order for the two films together to match the success of THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE last year, which opened on Wednesday 4/5/23, and earned $574.9M domestically in its extended 19-week run.
KUNG FU PANDA 4 finished in first place with a second-weekend gross of $30.0M, a decline of 48% from its opening weekend. After 10 days, the animated sequel has brought in $107.7M domestic, which holds up well in comparison to the 2008 original KUNG FU PANDA which earned $117.3M domestic in its first 10 days.
Domestic Box Office for KUNG FU PANDA Movies after 10 Days
- KUNG FU PANDA (2008) – $117.3M
- KUNG FU PANDA 4 (2024) – 107.7M
- KUNG FU PANDA 2 (2011) – $92.7M
- KUNG FU PANDA 3 (2016) – $69.3M
The movie’s backers are delighted that Chapter 4 has earned $107.7M in its first ten days, which is 92% of the take from the original KUNG FU PANDA movie at this same point. This is especially positive given the downward box office trend of PANDA movies 2 and 3. Of course, the rise in ticket prices over the past 15 years has played a role in raising grosses for PANDA 4.
The availability of moviegoers during the spring break period and on Easter weekend (3/29-3/31) may give an additional kick to PANDA 4’s results. The movie’s 10-day domestic total has already exceeded its $85M production budget and an international tally of $145.5M makes it look even better. Based on this success, we expect that Universal will greenlight at least one more PANDA movie.
DUNE: PART TWO finished in second place for the second consecutive weekend, earning $29.1M, a drop of 37% from last weekend. After 17 days, DUNE 2 has outperformed Denis Villeneuve’s first DUNE movie by a lot, with the domestic total coming in at 244% compared to the original and worldwide total at 130%.
Box Office for DUNE Movies After 17 Days
- DUNE: PART TWO (3/1/2024) – $205.3M Domestic, $436.8M Worldwide
- DUNE (10/22/2021) – $84.1M Domestic, $336.4M Worldwide
Despite a hefty production budget of $190M, DUNE: PART TWO appears to be on track for profitability. DUNE in 2021 had a worldwide gross of $336.4M after 17 days and wound up earning $433.9M. If DUNE2 follows this same trajectory it will end with $567.8M worldwide, easily clearing the 2.5X multiple of its production budget which is widely considered to be the break-even point for a Hollywood movie.
Lionsgate’s ARTHUR THE KING is finishing third place, which took in $7.5M in its opening weekend. The film stars Mark Wahlberg in the 52nd movie of his 30-year career. All his films together have grossed an amazing $3.2B worldwide. ARTHUR THE KING is a classic “Man and His Dog” story, based on actual events surrounding a competition called the Adventure Racing World Series, with categories of competition including trekking, mountain biking, and paddling.
Wahlberg plays Michael Light, a competitor in the event who convinces a sponsor to fund his team for one last chance to compete. Wahlberg befriends a dog named Arthur and over 10 days and 435 miles across the terrain of the Dominican Republic, they are pushed to their limit. The two become separated at one point but are eventually able to find each other and reunite.
Critics have rated it a lukewarm 63% on Rotten Tomatoes, but audiences are touched by the drama, giving it a 98% score. This discrepancy is not unusual for a Wahlberg picture, a veritable crowd-pleaser. The production budget for the movie was a tightly controlled $20M, giving it a good chance to reach profitability.
The Lionsgate and Blumhouse horror film IMAGINARY slotted into fourth place with $5.6M in its second weekend, a decline of 44%. After 10 days, the film has earned $19.1M domestically. The only other horror film to open in wide release this year was Universal’s NIGHT SWIM, which also earned $19.1M in its first ten days (1/5 – 1/14).
Since IMAGINARY is running dead even with NIGHT SWIM, it may also wind up with a similar box office to the earlier title, which came in at $32.4M domestically. However, IMAGINARY’s prospects will be challenged next week when a new horror movie hits theaters, Neon’s IMMACULATE starring Sydney Sweeney.
Angel Studios’ CABRINI dropped to fifth place this weekend with a disappointing gross of $2.8M, a steep decline of 61% from last weekend’s opening. This is the sharpest second-weekend drop for any of the five Angel Studios movies to date:
Angel Studios Movies – Box Office Decline in Second Weekend
- SOUND OF FREEDOM (7/4/2023) – $19.7M Opening Weekend, $27.3M 2nd Weekend (+39%)
- THE SHIFT (12/1/2023) – $4.3M Opening Weekend, $2.1M 2nd Weekend (-51%)
- HIS ONLY SON (3/30/2023) – $5.5M Opening Weekend, $2.5M 2nd Weekend (-55%)
- AFTER DEATH (10/27/2023) – $5.1M Opening Weekend, $2.0M 2nd Weekend (-60%)
- CABRINI (3/8/2024) – $7.2M Opening Weekend, $2.8M 2nd Weekend (-61%)
With the notable exception of SOUND OF FREEDOM, which had an extraordinary 39% increase in its second weekend, the other Angel Studios features have dropped between 51% to 60% in their second weekend. This is roughly in line with an expected 50% drop for most films. CABRINI’s drop of 61% is a rude awakening for Angel Studios’ which has been celebrated as a success story in the industry.
What’s more, CABRINI is carrying strong ratings of 90% from critics and 98% from audiences on Rotten Tomatoes. Scores in that range usually lead to extended runs with solid returns. CABRINI’s results are disappointing, especially because the studio invested $50M to produce the film which is by far the highest budget for any film it has made. We’ll watch closely to see if declines moderate next weekend. If it can hold on until Easter weekend, it could be in line for a comeback of sorts.
WHERE ARE WE AS OF 3/14
After the first ten weeks of 2024, the year-to-date box office stands at 88% compared with the same ten weeks in 2023, and 66% compared with those weeks in 2019.