GOWER STREET's Box Office Outlook
Posted on Jun 05, 2022 @ 1:56 PM PT

Domestic Market Reclaims Global #1 Position From China in May, the Second Best Month in the Pandemic Era

The positive box office trend of the past two months accelerated in May, with the global box office hitting $2.3bn, up 28% from the prior month’s total of $1.8bn.

The International market (excluding China) showed the lowest monthly deficit of the pandemic against the pre-pandemic three-year (2017 -2019) average, just -15% ($251m) behind. With a total International box office of $1.4 billion, it was its second highest-grossing single month since February 2020.

The Domestic market recorded the second highest-grossing month since January 2020 with a total of $800 million, -19% down against the three-year average.

INDUSTRYOUTLOOK-CHART1

On this month’s Global Box Office Tracker (GBOT, above), the stacked bar graph on the left shows total box office levels split out by the three key global markets: Domestic, China, and International (excluding China). The pie chart indicates the current deficit compared to the average of the past three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) and where those losses are currently coming from. The bar graph on the bottom right displays the percentage drops globally.

The major drivers of these results were two global blockbusters. DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS kicked off business in May and TOP GUN: MAVERICK closed the month out. The pair of titles contributed over two-thirds of the Domestic (69%) and roughly half of the International (49%) May total.

DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS delivered a box office of approximately $885 million within the month. It had a huge opening weekend of $452 million but has seen a multiple on the lower end of recent superhero releases. However, globally it’s already the second highest-grossing US title since STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER ($1.07bn) in December 2019, only behind SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME ($1.89bn) from December 2021.

The Domestic market easily ranked #1 globally on the title with $377 million, representing 47% of the market’s total within the month. That outstanding result was followed by South Korea’s $49 million (40% market share), UK/Ireland’s $48 million (37% MS), Mexico with $39 million (64% MS), Brazil with $32 million (67% MS), and Australia with $25 million (39% MS).

TOP GUN: MAVERICK generated $341 million in less than a full play week at the end of May. The film set opening records for star Tom Cruise in 32 markets, including the Domestic market. That is even more impressive given Cruise has been acting for four decades. Domestic was the highest-grossing territory for TOP GUN as well, at #2 in the month with $176 million, representing a 22% market share. That terrific performance is followed by UK/Ireland with $27 million (21% MS), Australia with $13 million (20% MS), France with $12 million (13% MS), Japan with $9 million (6% MS) and Germany with $8 million (13% MS).

Five months into the year and the Global box office stands at an estimated $10.65 billion. This is $4 billion ahead of the same stage in 2021, but approximately $6.8 billion (-39%) behind the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019). At the end of May 2022 had already nearly achieved 90% of the 2020 full year total ($11.8bn) and will overtake it in the coming weeks. The 2022 tally is at half of last year’s $21.3 billion results.

The APAC region achieved the most impressive result of all international regions in an overall positive month. It had the highest-grossing month since January 2020, just -10% down on the average of the three pre-pandemic years.

The region benefited in May from the long-overdue comeback of one of the major international markets: South Korea. It grossed $124 million in the month, which made it by far the market’s highest-grossing month since December 2019. The result was on par with the three-year pre-pandemic average (+2%) and bigger than the cumulative box office of the first four months of the year. The two key factors in that were, 1: the lifting of multiple major restrictions in South Korea as of April 25, allowing food consumption in theatres and the filling of all available seats; and 2: two major releases leveraged the increased capacity with a combined market share of 83%. DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS at the beginning of the month finally drove

South Korea over the Stage 4 target on Gower Street’s Blueprint To Recovery (a week equivalent to the median of weekly business in 2018-2019). However, that result was surpassed by local crime thriller THE ROUNDUP, a sequel to 2017’s THE OUTLAWS, two weeks later. THE ROUNDUP had a monthly total of $54 million and helped to push the May 19 play-week over the countries Stage 5 ”full recovery” target (a week equivalent to the top quartile of weekly business in 2018-2019) for the first time.

South Korea was the only major box office market to have achieved neither stages 4 nor 5 on the Blueprint To Recovery up until this May. All other markets tracked in our global State Of The Market report had achieved all 5 Stages by the end of last year, with 19 markets (including Domestic) doing so in the December 17 play week thanks to SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME. That is a remarkable step in the global recovery process!

Another market from the APAC region that struggled for most of 2022 and grew significantly in May was Hong Kong. It recorded its second highest-grossing month since December 2019. The success came after being allowed to re-open its cinemas at the end of the prior month (April 21), coming off a 3.5-month closure (the fourth, and longest, lockdown in the territory). From the 30 territories tracked in our State Of The Market report, Hong Kong is still one of the just four markets that are tracking behind 2021 in the running year at -29%. Nevertheless, in May its result nearly doubled (+86%) the same month last year!

Two more highlights from the APAC region are Australia and New Zealand. Both picked up on their strong April performance and had a May box office that was almost on par with the pre-pandemic three-year (2017 -2019) average (AUS -2%, NZ -3%). Both are the lowest monthly deficits of the pandemic for both territories.

The Latin America region was also able to step up in May. Topping the previous second-highest-grossing month of April ($155m) with $202 million in May by nearly a third (+31%). That is just -16% down on the average of the three pre-pandemic years. DOCTOR STRANGE IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS had a commanding impact. In its opening play week, it pushed multiple markets above its Stage 5 target for the first time since SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME last December.

Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region’s box office showed the lowest uplift from April among the three sub-regions; it was on par with $609 million. This is still the third highest-grossing month of the pandemic for EMEA. Moreover, from a seasonality point of view, May is historically the third lowest-grossing month of the year in the region.

Therefore, the EMEA region recorded the second-lowest percentage drop against the three-year average with -20%, just behind October 2021 (-7%). Outstanding performances from the major markets were coming from the Netherlands, which had a pandemic-era best of being 6% above the three-year average, and the UK/Ireland just -4% behind, the second-best of the pandemic.

The Domestic market was up 37% against April to achieve its second-best result of the pandemic, only behind December 2021 ($956m). The percentage loss against the monthly three-year average (-19%) was behind only October 2021 (-15%). At the end of May, the Domestic box office stood at $2.7 billion in 2022.

That is now higher than the $2.4 billion of China, a big shift with the Domestic market reclaiming its position as the #1 global box office market from China this month! China had overtaken the Domestic market in 2020 for the first time as its box office saw a significantly faster and stronger recovery followings its first, 6-month, lockdown. It then quickly surged ahead of the Domestic market in early 2021 to easily retain its #1 box office market crown for a second year. This year, however, the market has struggled both with rising Covid cases resulting in cinema closures and a lack of major import releases.

China continued struggling for the third consecutive month. While being up on April (+26%) due to a May holiday uplift, the $112 million result was still the second-lowest monthly box office in China since July 2020, when cinemas began re-opening. Both the Domestic and International markets continue to make slight inroads into reducing their deficit against the pre-pandemic three-year average, however, China’s position continues to worsen from -32% at the end of April to -40% a month later.

There is a reasonable hope that the situation in China will change for better in June, with Shanghai easing its restrictions at the start of the month. JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION also secured an, increasingly rare, release date in China on June 10. The two prior installments did $230 million in 2015 and $265 million in 2018. The release will be a major test of the market.

On a global scale, the last months have shown strong recovery signs in the theatrical market. The steady flow of attractive movies helped to lift the markets’ total performance and increase the sustainability of the industry worldwide. Basic levels of individual market results continue to be reached with growing frequency. In May, of the 30 territories tracked in our global State Of The Market report, 25 reached the Stage 3 target, or higher, on the Blueprint To Recovery for a full play-week. That is on par with the pandemic best in December 2021 and ahead of 21 in April, the second-best so far in the recovery process!

That accelerating trend is unlikely to change in June. The releases of JURASSIC WORLD, LIGHTYEAR, ELVIS, and MINIONS should guarantee a third consecutive month of significant recovery!

Weekend Review… 6/3-6/5

JURASSIC PARK Opens on...

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Export.The Services may be subject to U.S. export control laws and may be subject to export or import regulations in other countries. You agree not to export, reexport, or transfer, directly or indirectly, any U.S. technical data acquired from SCREENDOLLARS, or any products utilizing such data, in violation of U.S. export laws or regulations.
Electronic communications.The communications between you and SCREENDOLLARS may use electronic means, whether you visit or use our Services or send e-mails to us, or whether SCREENDOLLARS posts notices on or in the Services or communicates with you via e-mail. For contractual purposes, you (a) consent to receive communications from SCREENDOLLARS in an electronic form; and (b) agree that all terms and conditions, agreements, notices, disclosures, and other communications that SCREENDOLLARS provides to you electronically satisfy any legal requirement that such communications would satisfy if it were be in a hardcopy writing. The foregoing does not affect your statutory rights, including but not limited to the Electronic Signatures in Global and National Commerce Act at 15 U.S.C. section 7001 et. Seq (“E-Sign”).
Governing law. Any and all controversies, disputes, demands, counts, claims or causes of action between you and SCREENDOLLARS and our employees, agents, successors, or assigns, regarding or relating to this Agreement or the Services will exclusively be governed by the internal laws of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, without regard to its choice of law rules and without regard to conflicts of law principles except that the arbitration provisions will be governed by the Federal Arbitration Act. The United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods will not apply to this Agreement.
Notice.Where SCREENDOLLARS requires that you provide an e-mail address, you are responsible for providing us with your most current e-mail address. In the event that the last e-mail address you provided to us is not valid, or for any reason is not capable of delivering to any notices required or permitted by this Agreement, our dispatch of the e-mail containing such notice will nonetheless constitute effective notice. You may give notice to us at the address set forth in Section 8.8. Such notice shall be deemed given when received by us by letter delivered by nationally recognized overnight delivery service or first class postage prepaid mail at that address.
Entire Agreement.This Agreement, including the documents referred to herein, constitutes the entire agreement between you and us regarding the use of the Services. Our failure to exercise or enforce any right or provision of this Agreement will not operate as a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of this Agreement is, for any reason, held to be invalid or unenforceable, the other provisions of this Agreement will be unimpaired and the invalid or unenforceable provision will be deemed modified so that it is valid and enforceable to the maximum extent permitted by law. Your relationship to SCREENDOLLARS is that of an independent contractor, and neither party is an agent or partner of the other. This Agreement, and your rights and obligations herein, may not be assigned, subcontracted, or otherwise transferred by you without SCREENDOLLARS’s prior written consent, and any attempted assignment, subcontract, or transfer in violation of the foregoing will be null and void. The terms and conditions set forth in this Agreement will be binding upon assignees.
Copyright/Trademark Information.Copyright © 2020, Screendollars, LLC. All rights reserved. All trademarks, logos and service marks (“Marks”) displayed on or in the Services are our property or the property of third parties. You may not use these Marks without our prior written consent or the consent of such third party.
Contact Information:SCREENDOLLARS, LLC. | 33 Miller Hill Road, Dover, MA 02030 | (978) 494-4150, contactus@screendollars.com.