Despite having the biggest box office opening of 2024, DUNE: PART TWO on its own could not produce enough in ticket sales to end the streak of nine consecutive weekends having a lower box office than the same weekends at the beginning of 2023.
Last year on this weekend, the total for all movies came in at $119.4M, led by CREED III with $58.4M in its opening weekend. This year, all movies produced $113.0M, led by $81.5M for DUNE: PART TWO. Still, exhibitors were thrilled to profit from the first bona fide blockbuster of the year.
As tempting as it may be to blame the dismal start to 2024 on the six months of disruption from Hollywood’s labor strikes last year, the current weekend benefited from those strikes. Otherwise, DUNE 2 would have already opened last fall.
Warner Bros. postponed its release to March to ensure that its stars were not restricted in their efforts to promote the movie. What was a loss for 2023 becomes a gain for 2024 and this same phenomenon will occur again soon when GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE opens later this month after it was also pushed back from its original release date last December.
This weekend’s somewhat soft results were not due to any failing from DUNE: PART TWO, which lived up to its pre-release hype. DUNE 2 was the choice for 7 out of 10 moviegoers in theatres this weekend. The problem was with the other supporting titles, with the second to fifth movies of the weekend grossing only $17.5M this weekend, compared to movies in the same places last year earning $42.6M.
DUNE: PART TWO is the second chapter of the first DUNE which opened on 10/21/2021. The earlier film produced an opening weekend gross of $41.0M and a total run of $108.1M domestic and $433.8M worldwide. While DUNE: PART TWO has started with a much higher total than the 2021 movie, the original DUNE opened when theatres were still contending with the dampening effect of COVID-19 on moviegoing. As a result, Warner Bros. opted to open DUNE simultaneously in theatres and on HBO Max, which took away some of its box office potential.
The two DUNE movies are based on Frank Herbert’s celebrated 1965 novel, considered to be one of the greatest sci-fi stories of all time. PART TWO brings back the cast from the first movie, including Timothee Chalamet, Zendaya, Josh Brolin, Florence Pugh, and Christopher Walken. The story follows the quest of Paul “Muad’Dib” Atreides (Chalamet) and his warrior companion Chani (Zendaya) to exact revenge on the evildoers who destroyed Paul’s family.
DUNE in 2021 was well-received, earning ten Oscar nominations and winning six times. Its Rotten Tomatoes grades were 83% from critics and 90% from audiences. DUNE: PART TWO has even outscored the original, with stellar grades of 94% from critics and 95% from audiences. This bodes well for its long-term prospects, which is good since it has a pricey $190M production budget to earn back.
DUNE in 2021 generated only 25% of its total box office in the domestic market, with 75% coming from international ticket sales. With this year’s DUNE 2 having two times the domestic box office in its opening weekend, it has taken a strong first step towards achieving bottom-line success.
BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE finished second with $7.4M in its third weekend, a decline of 45% from last weekend. This brings the total box office to $82.8M domestic and $135.7M worldwide. Earlier last week, ONE LOVE passed MEAN GIRLS to become the #1 domestic title of 2024. Paramount made smart choices by opening the movie on Valentine’s Day which gave it the space to perform well during a relatively open stretch in the release schedule.
ORDINARY ANGELS landed in third place with $3.9M in ticket sales, a drop of 38% in its second weekend. This brings the ten-day total to $12.6M. One might have thought that a wide-release movie with a 99% fresh audience rating on Rotten Tomatoes would hold up better than this. With three more wide-release titles opening next weekend, the remaining box office potential for this movie appears limited. After investing $13M to produce the film, Lionsgate needs approximately $30M in total box office to break even.
Fourth place went to Sony’s MADAME WEB which captured $3.2M and fell 46%. Its total after 19 days in release is $40.4M domestic and $82M worldwide. We project that the total for its run in theatre will come in at approximately $50M domestic and $105M worldwide. Had this movie opened years ago, the results might have been much better but by 2024, with a parade of superhero titles hitting theatres over the past two years, the public appears to be burnt out on the genre.
Based on a reported production budget of $80M, MADAME WEB would need to gross $200M in worldwide box office to break even. At this point, it appears likely that it will be as much as $100M in the hole by the end of its theatrical run.
The other wide opener of the weekend THE CHOSEN SEASON 4: EPISODES 7-8 finished in fifth place with $3.1M. This completes Fathom’s five-week experiment of premiering episodes from the upcoming season of THE CHOSEN series in theatres before making them available to watch online. Here is a recap of how these episodes have done:
- THE CHOSEN SEASON 4: EPISODES 1-3 – $13.9M (2 weeks from 2/1-2/14)
- THE CHOSEN SEASON 4: EPISODES 4-6 – $8.8M (2 weeks from 2/15-2/28)
- THE CHOSEN SEASON 4: EPISODES 7-8 – $3.1M (4-days from 2/29-3/3)
The SEASON 4 episodes have generated a total box office of $25.8M and their theatrical release has provided terrific exposure for the series. Everybody wins with this arrangement, and we expect that other buzz-worthy TV series will likewise use theatres to showcase episodes from upcoming seasons.
Where Are We as of 2/29
After the first eight weeks of 2024, the year-to-date box office stands at 82% compared with the same eight weeks in 2023, and 62% compared with those weeks in 2019.