ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA exceeded expectations by earning $104M on its opening weekend. It was a welcome performance for the third chapter of the Disney/Marvel franchise, with all three movies directed by Peyton Reid and starring Paul Rudd, Evangeline Lilly, Michael Douglas, and Michele Pfeifer. Stability in the creative team may be one reason for each movie in the series topping the results of the prior releases. This chart illustrates ANT-MAN’s growing stronger over time.
ANT-MAN QUANTUMANIA is the first movie in “Phase 5” of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), which itself is the middle phase of the “Multiverse” saga. It is also the movie debut of Jonathan Majors as “Kang the Conqueror,” the next overarching villain for the franchise.
These impressive results are warming the hearts and filling the cash coffers of exhibitors as well as studio execs at Disney and Marvel. Critics have treated the film harshly by giving 48% Tomatometer score on Rotten Tomatoes, but audiences are showing their loyalty to the franchise with a 84% score.
This should bode well for performance in future weeks. It is quite possible that ANT-MAN QUANTUMANIA will blow past $200M in the U.S. and Canada over its first ten days, which is equal to the sum Disney paid for its production. After adding in International grosses, ANT-MAN QUANTUMANIA is sure to be a financial winner for Marvel, which is a boost for the studio after a recent string of MCU releases that have produced lower grosses compared with their prior chapters.
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER finished in second place with $6.1M, a drop of only 15% from last weekend. This slight decline is yet another indication that AVATAR 2 is completely outside the norm of Hollywood-wide releases. Despite ANT-MAN QUANTUMANIA opening better than expected and taking over virtually all the Premium Large Format screens in theatres, James Cameron’s smashing sequel could have been expected to suffer a steep drop this weekend. Based on this continued success, we expect that AVATAR 2 will continue its amazing run for several more weeks before the final numbers are written into the record books.
MAGIC MIKE’S LAST DANCE finished in third place with $5.5M, a decline of 33% from last weekend despite the fact that it expanded to more than twice as many locations as it had played last weekend. As with ANT-MAN QUANTUMANIA, this is the third movie in the MAGIC MIKE series but this one has not headed in the right direction.
The first MAGIC MIKE in 2012 grossed $114M Domestically, followed by MAGIC MIKE XXL in 2015 which earned $66M. After this weekend, we project MAGIC MIKE’S LAST DANCE will wind up grossing a mere $25M, on a production budget of $45M. Based on these results, we project that its erstwhile backers at Warner Bros. will pull the plug on any future editions, putting an end to the series.
PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH finished in fourth place with another $5.3M, a decline of only 6% from last weekend. The DreamWorks animated phenomenon has now sold $166M in tickets at North American theatres. Rounding out the top five is KNOCK AT THE CABIN which found another $3.9M, a drop of 28% from last weekend, which brings its 17-day total to $30.3M.
The other wide-release movie to open this week (on Wednesday 2/15) was Open Road’s noir crime thriller MARLOWE starring Liam Neeson in the role of the famous private detective Philip Marlowe. It only grossed $1.9M from Friday to Sunday, which landed it in eighth place on the box office charts. This movie has a solid pedigree, directed by Neil Jordan and starring Jessica Lange, Diane Kruger, and Alan Cumming alongside Neeson.
The critics were scathing with their 25% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and audiences were nearly as disappointed with their 42% score. We expect this one to last for an “industry-standard” two-week run in theatres before it quickly fades to black. Fun fact: MARLOWE is Liam Neeson’s 100th film credit!
The total box office this weekend came in at $139.9M, which exceeds the $93.4M earned during the same weekend last year when Sony’s actioner UNCHARTED starring Mark Wahlberg and Tom Holland opened with $43M and UA Releasing’s comedy DOG starring Channing Tatum opened with $15M. After producing lower results last weekend than the same weekend one year before, 2023 is back to its winning ways again this weekend, as it had been for all five weeks to start the new year.
WHERE ARE WE AS OF 2/16
2023 continues to post solid results in comparison to 2022, having earned 154% compared with last year after six weeks. On the other hand, the first six weeks of 2023 are only 70% of the high-water mark of 2019.