In 2023, the box office is expected to continue to build back on its road to recovery after the pandemic disruptions of 2020 and 2021. Most analysts are predicting a Domestic box office of $8.5B to $9B for the year, buoyed by 100 wide releases, of which 33 will be market-making “tentpole” movies.
While this is still well short of the 143 wide releases and $11.9B box office in 2019, it’s a solid 22% increase in the box office compared with $7.4B in 2022 and a 72% increase compared with $4.3B in 2021. The consensus is that the Domestic box office may take until 2025 to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
Studios have cleared out their product backlog from the pandemic and are making decisions on new movies based on their interpretation of the current market dynamics. There is still much uncertainty over adult-oriented, mid-budget films, whether to release them theatrically or direct them straight to streaming. It depends on whether crowds of 50+-year-old movie lovers can be lured back to theatres.
Studios and exhibitors will have to produce movies that appeal to broad sections of this older audience and invest a sizeable investment in marketing. While some films have done well this year, such as A24’s Oscar-contending EVERYTHING, EVERYWHERE, ALL AT ONCE, others have bombed, such as Paramount’s BABYLON and Sony/TriStar’s WHITENEY HOUSTON: I WANNA DANCE WITH SOMEBODY. But the success of these films was always difficult to predict, even before the pandemic when many more of these movies were playing at theatres.
Here are 33 movies in 2023 with the potential to gross more than $100M at the Domestic box office:
- 02/17 – Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (Dis)
- 03/03 – Creed III (UAR)
- 03/17 – Shazam! Fury of the Gods (NL)
- 03/24 – John Wick: Chapter 4 (LG)
- 03/31 – Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (Par)
- 04/07 – Super Mario Bros. (Uni)
- 05/05 – Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Dis)
- 05/19 – Fast X (Uni)
- 05/26 – The Little Mermaid (Dis)
- 06/02 – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse – Part 1 (Sony)
- 06/09 – Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Par)
- 06/16 – Elemental (Dis)
- 06/16 – The Flash (WB)
- 06/30 – Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Dis)
- 07/14 – Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (Par)
- 07/21 – Oppenheimer (Uni)
- 07/21 – Barbie (WB)
- 07/28 – The Marvels (Dis)
- 08/04 – Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Par)
- 08/04 – The Meg 2 (WB)
- 08/11 – Haunted Mansion (Dis)
- 08/18 – Blue Beetle (WB)
- 09/08 – The Nun 2 (NL)
- 10/06 – Kraven the Hunter (Sony)
- 11/03 – Dune: Part Two (WB)
- 11/17 – Trolls 3 (Uni)
- 11/17 – The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (LG)
- 11/24 – Wish (Dis)
- 12/15 – Wonka (WB)
- 12/20 – The Color Purple (WB)
- 12/20 – Untitled Ghostbusters Sequel (Sony)
- 12/22 – Migration (Uni)
- 12/25 – Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (WB/DC)