DICK WALSH's Industry Update
Posted on Nov 24, 2024 @ 11:19 AM PT

11/22-11/24: WICKED Defies Gravity; GLADIATOR II Entertains the Crowds

Universal’s WICKED opened this weekend with an inspiring $114M in ticket sales, followed by Paramount’s GLADIATOR II with a strong $55.5M second place finish. The combined total for all movies this weekend was $208.0M. This compares very favorably to the same weekend last year, which generated only $116M, led by THE HUNGER GAMES: THE BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS & SNAKES with $29M in its second weekend.

This is the highest-grossing pre-Thanksgiving weekend since 2013, when November 22-24 brought in $226.5M led by $158.1M from the opening of THE HUNGER GAMES: CATCHING FIRE. It is the fifth highest pre-Thanksgiving weekend in history, with the record held by November 20-22 in 2009 when THE TWILIGHT SAGA: NEW MOON opened with $142.8M and the total box office was $258.6M.

Exceptional performances had been expected for WICKED and GLADIATOR II, with many hoping the two films together could rival last summer’s dual openings of BARBIE and OPPENHEIMER from July 21-23. In the end, this weekend came in as the third highest of the year, after $284.9M from July 26-28 when DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE opened and $213.9M from June 14-16 when INSIDE OUT 2 arrived.

The total for WICKED and GLADIATOR II together was $169.5M, 69% of the $244.5M taken in by BARBIE and OPPENHEIMER in their debut. Here is a comparison of each of these four movies individually, and the totals for the WICKEDIATOR and BARBENHEIMER pairs.

WICKED & GLADIATOR II vs. BARBIE & OPPENHEIMER

WICKED (11/22/2024) – Opening Domestic $114.0M, Budget $150M, RT Critics/Audience 90%/97%
BARBIE (7/21/2023)- Opening Domestic $162.0M, Total Domestic $636.2M, Total Worldwide $1.447B, Budget $145M, RT Critics/Audience 88%/83%
GLADIATOR II (11/22/2024)- Opening Domestic $55.5M, Budget $250M, RT Critics/Audience 71%/85%
OPPENHEIMER (7/21/2023)- Opening Domestic $82.5M, Total Domestic $329.9M, Total Worldwide $975.6M, Budget $100M, RT Critics/Audience 93%/91%
WICKEDIATOR – Opening Domestic $169.5M, Total Budget $400M
BARBENHEIMER – Opening Domestic $244.5M, Total Domestic $966.1M, Total Worldwide $2.4226B, Total Budget $245M

As expected, WICKED finished first with a soaring $114.0M weekend. The storyline of the movie takes place before the events depicted in the classic movie THE WIZARD OF OZ (1939), though this story is technically a reimagining rather than a prequel. It explores the backstory of Elphaba, who will become The Wicked Witch of the West, and Glinda, who turns into The Good Witch. The screenplay is based on Gregory Maguire’s novel “Wicked: The Life and Times of the Wicked Witch of the West” published in 1995. The novel explores their personalities, struggles, and the complex political and social landscape of Oz approximately 15-20 years before Dorothy’s arrival. The novel explains how Elphaba turned “wicked” and how her rivalry with Glinda developed. However, because WICKED reinterprets characters and events in a way that sometimes diverges from the original Oz narrative, it functions more as a parallel story that deepens the world view rather than following precisely the storyline of the 1900 novel by L. Frank Baum and the 1939 film version. It is interesting to note that THE WIZARD OF OZ had a lifetime gross of $29.7M from its original theatrical release and subsequent re-releases. Adjusted for inflation, this amounts to roughly $588M in today’s dollars.

In 2003, Maguire’s novel was adapted to become the Tony Award winning musical “Wicked”, one of the most successful stage plays in history. 21 years later, the musical is still going strong on Broadway where it has earned an impressive $1.4B, the second highest-earning musical in history after “The Lion King” which has earned $1.9B. Wicked the musical has been staged in 16 countries and 100 cities, generating $5B in worldwide ticket sales. With such a rich history, it is only natural that Universal would want to use its IP to create a new movie extravaganza. Directed by Jon M. Chu (IN THE HEIGHTS from 2021 and CRAZY RICH ASIANS from 2018) the film features a cast led by Cynthia Erivo (Elphaba), Ariana Grande (Glinda), and Jeff Goldblum (The Wizard). Both critics and audiences love it, awarding 90% and 97% scores respectively on Rotten Tomatoes. After its exceptional opening, WICKED is certain to become one of top-grossing movies of the year. While INSIDE OUT 2 ($653.0M) and DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE ($636.7M) are probably safe at numbers 1 and 2, the third-place status of Universal’s DESPICABLE ME 4 at $361.0M could be in jeopardy. With a production budget of $145M, WICKED is almost certain to make a profit, needing $365M in worldwide gross to move into the black. The worldwide exposure of the play should lead to strong international interest.

The decision to divide the story into two theatrical releases makes the financial outlook for the project even brighter, as the two chapters were shot at the same time, holding down the total production cost for both releases to $310M. WICKED was not always envisioned as a two-part release. Initially, Universal and director Jon M. Chu were planning on making a single film. However, in April 2022, Chu announced that his movie would be split into two chapters in order to avoid cutting essential material from the Broadway musical and make it so that the full story could be told.

Chu explained that the intricate narrative, beloved songs, and emotional journey would be compromised by packing everything into a single film. The two movies allow for a more faithful and expansive adaptation of the Broadway production. This weekend’s WICKED has a running time of 2 hours and 40 minutes while WICKED: PART 2 is likely to have a similar runtime when it opens next year at this time. Occasionally, an artistic decision is also a sound financial choice.

Paramount’s GLADIATOR II opened in second place with $55.5M. This is the long-awaited sequel to the 2000 movie GLADIATOR, which received 12 Academy Award nominations and won five including Best Picture and Best Actor (Russell Crowe) at the 73rd Academy Awards on Sunday, March 25, 2001. Not only was the original film a critical success but it was also a financial winner, the third highest-grossing movie of its year. GLADIATOR had a domestic box office of $187.6M and a worldwide gross of $465.5M, the equivalent of $343.9M and $853.3M in 2024 dollars. Even after a 24-year gap, Ridley Scott came back to direct the sequel, which is no small feat given that the famous director will turn 87 on November 30th. The movie also reunites much of the creative team from the first movie, including cinematographer John Mathieson, production designer Arthur Max, and costume designer Janty Yates.

The events in GLADIATOR II take place 20-25 years after those depicted in GLADIATOR, mirroring the real-world time difference between the two movies. The main character of GLADIATOR II is Lucius, who appeared as young boy in the original, when he was inspired by Maximus, that movie’s protagonist played by Russell Crowe. Now as an adult, Lucius finds himself pulled back into the violent world of Roman politics and gladiatorial combat. Because Maximus dies in the original, it was not possible for Russell Crowe to return in the sequel but the actor is reported to be very positive about the new movie, and recognizes the impact that his role in GLADIATOR had on his career. The new cast is led by Paul Mescal who plays Lucas and Denzel Washington who plays Macrinus, a powerful figure seeking to overthrow the current Roman emperors played by Joseph Quinn as Emperor Geta and Fred Hechinger as Emperor Caracalla. Their rule is shown as being excessively cruel and despotic, with the muscle provided by General Marcus Acacius, played by Pedro Pascal. Both Connie Nielsen as Lucilla, Lucius’s mother, and Derek Jacobi as Gracchus, an ally of Maximus, return in their roles from the original film.

GLADIATOR set a high bar for critical praise, with its pedigree of winning multiple Oscars. The new movie has done OK in that regard, with a 71% critic’s score on Rotten Tomatoes and praise for Ridley Scott in having produced a muscular spectacle with impressive visuals and epic battle sequences. Denzel Washington is cited for his part as the Machiavellian character Marcrinus, with some suggesting that his performance may be Oscar-worthy. On the other hand, some critics complain that II does not capture the emotional depth of the original, saying that Mescal’s performance lacks the gravitas that Crowe brought to the screen. Audiences are weighing in with a just-fine 87% score on Rotten Tomatoes.

Here is a breakdown of the two GLADIATOR films and how they compare in several important categories.

GLADIATOR vs. GLADIATOR II

GLADIATOR (5/5/2000) – Opening Domestic $34.8M, Total Domestic $187.6M, Total Worldwide $460.6M, Budget $103M, RT Critics/Audience 80%/87%
GLADIATOR II (11/22/24) – Opening Domestic $55.5M, Budget $210M, RT Critics/Audience 71%/85%

With GLADIATOR II’s opening outperforming the original’s by a healthy 59%, the sequel is off to a positive start. The $55.5M it earned is the second highest opening ever for a Ridley Scott-directed movie falling just short of HANNIBAL which earned $58.0M in 2001. Not surprisingly, the budget for the new movie has ballooned by comparison, coming in at $250M compared to $100M for GLADIATOR. This will make it more difficult for GLADIATOR II be as profitable as the original, which earned worldwide gross that was 4.5 times its production budget.

RED ONE from Amazon/MGM finished third with $13.3M and a drop of 59%. The 10-day domestic total is $52.9M, with a 17-day worldwide gross at $115.8M. The 59% decline in its second weekend is a sign that the movie could hold up over the weeks ahead. A drop of anything less than 60% is an achievement, especially when considering that it has a lowly critic’s score of 31% and is going up against the blockbuster openings of WICKED and GLADIATOR II. Beginning Wednesday, RED ONE will face another stiff challenge when Disney’s MOANA 2 opens, drawing the attention of most family audiences. Its 91% audience score and Christmas theme should help RED ONE to hang around through December, with some moviegoers looking for seasonal fare. The real test will be how many of its initial 4,000+ locations continue to play it through the holidays. Amazon/MGM will be pleased if it is still playing at 2,000 locations in the final week of the year.

BONHOEFFER: PASTOR, SPY, ASSASSIN from Angel Studios finished in fourth place by taking in $5.1M on its opening weekend. Todd Komarnicki (SULLY from 2016) directs and wrote this screenplay telling the story of Dietrich Bonhoeffer, a German theologian and dissident who participated in the plot to assassinate Adolf Hitler in 1944. As is often the case with an Angel Studios movie, the film focuses on issues of moral complexity. The movie’s focus is on Bonhoffer’s internal conflict as a pacifist who is motivated to join a plot to kill Hitler after seeing the atrocities of the Nazi regime.

Critics have been mixed with only a 59% score on Rotten Tomatoes, with some saying that the cinematography was impressive but that they were unconvinced by how Bonhoeffer’s pacifist ideals were represented. Historians are arguing that Bonhoffer’s participation in the assassination plot is oversold for dramatic effect, and is inconsistent with his pacifist ideals. Angel Studios has built a loyal fan following for its pictures and the audience score on this film is a very high at 91%. Angel has once again used crowdfunding to finance its production, and a unique “Pay It Forward” campaign to boost ticket sales.

Sony and Marvel’s VENOM: THE LAST DANCE finished in fifth place by adding $4.0M to its total, a drop of 45% from last weekend. After 31 days, the superhero sequel has amassed $133.8M domestic and $450.5M worldwide. The third chapter in the trilogy is on target to earn $145M domestic and $480M worldwide. Despite being short of the original VENOM’s box office total of $213.5M domestic and $856.1M worldwide, THE LAST DANCE will still wind up being profitable with a 4X ratio comparing its worldwide box office to its $120M production budget.

Where Are We as of 11/22

After last week’s lackluster performanace, the 2024 box office has fallen by 1% compared to 2023, now standing at 86% and 72% of 2019 totals, after 46 weeks.

‘Wicked’ Audience Etiquette: Is...

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You may choose to have the arbitration conducted by telephone, based on written submissions, or in person in the country where you live or at another mutually agreed location. Any judgment on the award rendered by the arbitrator may be entered in any court of competent jurisdiction. Authority of Arbitrator. The arbitrator shall have exclusive authority to (a) determine the scope and enforceability of this Arbitration Agreement and (b) resolve any dispute related to the interpretation, applicability, enforceability or formation of this Arbitration Agreement including, but not limited to, any assertion that all or any part of this Arbitration Agreement is void or voidable. The arbitration will decide the rights and liabilities, if any, of you and SCREENDOLLARS. The arbitration proceeding will not be consolidated with any other matters or joined with any other cases or parties. The arbitrator shall have the authority to grant motions dispositive of all or part of any claim. The arbitrator shall have the authority to award monetary damages and to grant any non-monetary remedy or relief available to an individual under applicable law, the arbitral forum’s rules, and the Agreement (including the Arbitration Agreement). The arbitrator shall issue a written award and statement of decision describing the essential findings and conclusions on which the award is based, including the calculation of any damages awarded. The arbitrator has the same authority to award relief on an individual basis that a judge in a court of law would have. The award of the arbitrator is final and binding upon you and us.
Waiver of Jury Trial.YOU AND SCREENDOLLARS HEREBY WAIVE ANY CONSTITUTIONAL AND STATUTORY RIGHTS TO SUE IN COURT AND HAVE A TRIAL IN FRONT OF A JUDGE OR A JURY. You and Company are instead electing that all disputes, claims, or requests for relief shall be resolved by arbitration under this Arbitration Agreement, except as specified in Section 8.2(a) above. An arbitrator can award on an individual basis the same damages and relief as a court and must follow this Agreement as a court would. However, there is no judge or jury in arbitration, and court review of an arbitration award is subject to very limited review.
Waiver of Class or Other Non-Individualized Relief.ALL DISPUTES, CLAIMS, AND REQUESTS FOR RELIEF WITHIN THE SCOPE OF THIS ARBITRATION AGREEMENT MUST BE ARBITRATED ON AN INDIVIDUAL BASIS AND NOT ON A CLASS OR COLLECTIVE BASIS, ONLY INDIVIDUAL RELIEF IS AVAILABLE, AND CLAIMS OF MORE THAN ONE CUSTOMER OR USER CANNOT BE ARBITRATED OR CONSOLIDATED WITH THOSE OF ANY OTHER CUSTOMER OR USER. If a decision is issued stating that applicable law precludes enforcement of any of this subsection’s limitations as to a given dispute, claim, or request for relief, then such aspect must be severed from the arbitration and brought into the State or Federal Courts located in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. All other disputes, claims, or requests for relief shall be arbitrated.
30-Day Right to Opt Out.You have the right to opt out of the provisions of this Arbitration Agreement by sending written notice of your decision to opt out to: contactus@screendollars.com, within 30 days after first becoming subject to this Arbitration Agreement. Your notice must include your name and address, your SCREENDOLLARS username (if any), the email address you used to set up your SCREENDOLLARS account (if you have one), and an unequivocal statement that you want to opt out of this Arbitration Agreement. If you opt out of this Arbitration Agreement, all other parts of this Agreement will continue to apply to you. Opting out of this Arbitration Agreement has no effect on any other arbitration agreements that you may currently have, or may enter in the future, with us.
Severability.Except as provided in subsection (e) above, if any part or parts of this Arbitration Agreement are found under the law to be invalid or unenforceable, then such specific part or parts shall be of no force and effect and shall be severed and the remainder of the Arbitration Agreement shall continue in full force and effect.
Survival of Agreement.This Arbitration Agreement will survive the termination of your relationship with SCREENDOLLARS.
Notwithstanding any provision in this Agreement to the contrary, we agree that if SCREENDOLLARS makes any future material change to this Arbitration Agreement, you may reject that change within thirty (30) You and SCREENDOLLARS acknowledge and agree that Apple, and Apple’s subsidiaries, are third-party beneficiaries of the Agreement as related to your license of the App Store Sourced Application, and that, upon your acceptance of the terms and conditions of the Agreement, Apple will have the right (and will be deemed to have accepted the right) to enforce the Agreement as related to your license of the App Store Sourced Application against you as a third-party beneficiary thereof.days of such change becoming effective by writing to us at the following address: contactus@screendollars.com.
Export.The Services may be subject to U.S. export control laws and may be subject to export or import regulations in other countries. You agree not to export, reexport, or transfer, directly or indirectly, any U.S. technical data acquired from SCREENDOLLARS, or any products utilizing such data, in violation of U.S. export laws or regulations.
Electronic communications.The communications between you and SCREENDOLLARS may use electronic means, whether you visit or use our Services or send e-mails to us, or whether SCREENDOLLARS posts notices on or in the Services or communicates with you via e-mail. For contractual purposes, you (a) consent to receive communications from SCREENDOLLARS in an electronic form; and (b) agree that all terms and conditions, agreements, notices, disclosures, and other communications that SCREENDOLLARS provides to you electronically satisfy any legal requirement that such communications would satisfy if it were be in a hardcopy writing. The foregoing does not affect your statutory rights, including but not limited to the Electronic Signatures in Global and National Commerce Act at 15 U.S.C. section 7001 et. Seq (“E-Sign”).
Governing law. Any and all controversies, disputes, demands, counts, claims or causes of action between you and SCREENDOLLARS and our employees, agents, successors, or assigns, regarding or relating to this Agreement or the Services will exclusively be governed by the internal laws of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, without regard to its choice of law rules and without regard to conflicts of law principles except that the arbitration provisions will be governed by the Federal Arbitration Act. The United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods will not apply to this Agreement.
Notice.Where SCREENDOLLARS requires that you provide an e-mail address, you are responsible for providing us with your most current e-mail address. In the event that the last e-mail address you provided to us is not valid, or for any reason is not capable of delivering to any notices required or permitted by this Agreement, our dispatch of the e-mail containing such notice will nonetheless constitute effective notice. You may give notice to us at the address set forth in Section 8.8. Such notice shall be deemed given when received by us by letter delivered by nationally recognized overnight delivery service or first class postage prepaid mail at that address.
Entire Agreement.This Agreement, including the documents referred to herein, constitutes the entire agreement between you and us regarding the use of the Services. Our failure to exercise or enforce any right or provision of this Agreement will not operate as a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of this Agreement is, for any reason, held to be invalid or unenforceable, the other provisions of this Agreement will be unimpaired and the invalid or unenforceable provision will be deemed modified so that it is valid and enforceable to the maximum extent permitted by law. Your relationship to SCREENDOLLARS is that of an independent contractor, and neither party is an agent or partner of the other. This Agreement, and your rights and obligations herein, may not be assigned, subcontracted, or otherwise transferred by you without SCREENDOLLARS’s prior written consent, and any attempted assignment, subcontract, or transfer in violation of the foregoing will be null and void. The terms and conditions set forth in this Agreement will be binding upon assignees.
Copyright/Trademark Information.Copyright © 2020, Screendollars, LLC. All rights reserved. All trademarks, logos and service marks (“Marks”) displayed on or in the Services are our property or the property of third parties. You may not use these Marks without our prior written consent or the consent of such third party.
Contact Information:SCREENDOLLARS, LLC. | 33 Miller Hill Road, Dover, MA 02030 | (978) 494-4150, contactus@screendollars.com.