• DICK WALSH's Industry Update
  • Posted on Mar 09, 2025 @ 11:57 AM PT

3/7-3/9: Bong Joon-ho’s MICKEY 17 Breathes Some New Life into the Weekend Box Office

Mickey 17

Warner Bros.’ sci-fi dark comedy MICKEY 17 shot to the top of the domestic box office with $19.1M in its opening three days.  This ended a three-week winning streak for CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD which had claimed the top spot every day since it opened on February 14.

All films in theatres earned $56.0M this weekend, which is well short of the same weekend last year when Universal’s animated KUNG FU PANDA 4 opened with $58.0M and led all films to $136.1M.  This is the second weekend in a row with box office grosses lower than in last year at this time.  It is also the second consecutive weekend when the total box office languished in the mid $50M range.

Next weekend, the current year will try to get back on track with four new wide-opening movies.  They include Paramount’s action-comedy thriller NOVOCAINE, the thrillers BLACK BAG from Focus Features and OPUS from A24, and the animated family film THE DAY THE EARTH BLEW UP: A LOONEY TUNES MOVIE, produced by Warner Bros. and distributed by Ketchup Entertainment. Last year on weekend #11 of the year, the top film was KUNG FU PANDA 4 in its second weekend, earning $30.1M and leading all films to $87.8M.

Bong Joon-ho’s new movie MICKEY 17 is based on the 2022 novel “Mickey7” by Edward Ashton.  Joon-ho wrote the screenplay and directed the movie, his first since the multi-award-winning PARASITE from 2019 which established him as one of the world’s preeminent filmmakers.  He has also been praised for his earlier work as a writer and director of SNOWPIERCER from 2013.

At the Academy Awards in 2020, PARASITE received six nominations and won four Oscars, including Best Director and Best Original Screenplay for Ho, Best International Feature, and Best Picture.  It was the first and only non-English language film to ever win the top award.  This recognition catapulted Ho into elite status on the world stage and primed many to track what project he would take on next.

MICKEY 17 was the next project to bring Joon-ho back to the big screen.  It follows the life of Mickey Barnes, an “expendable” crew member who is assigned to deadly missions to colonize the ice world Niflheim. When he dies, his consciousness is uploaded into a new clone, with his memories still intact but a fading sense of identity.

The story takes a twist when Mickey 17 unexpectedly survives a mission and encounters his replacement Mickey 18.  The two are forced to hide their dual identity from the rest of the crew while grappling with philosophical questions about mortality, selfhood, and what it means to be human.

The film adaptation of Edward Ashton’s novel “Mickey7” was retitled MICKEY 17 by director Joon-ho to emphasize the increasing number of times the protagonist is killed and cloned in the movie. While the book centers on Mickey’s seventh iteration, Joon-ho humorously noted at last year’s CinemaCon that he “killed him 10 more times” in his film, leading to the revised title.

Robert Pattinson (TWILIGHT) shows versatility in the title role, playing both Mickey 17 and Mickey 18.  The film features an impressive ensemble cast, including Naomi Ackie, Steven Yeun, Toni Collette, and Mark Ruffalo.

Critics are positive about the film, giving it a 79% Tomatometer rating on Rotten Tomatoes while audiences were slightly less positive with a 73% Popcornmeter score.  The Financial Times criticizes the film for over-explaining its themes and dragging subplots, resulting in a predictable narrative. Despite these shortcomings, Robert Pattinson’s performance adds humor, and the film features visually intriguing elements like the human printer and chaotic space grubs.

Overall, the film is considered passable, earning a two-star review. People Magazine offers a more positive perspective, describing MICKEY 17 as a wildly entertaining futuristic epic. The film blends humor, political commentary, and thrilling action, creating a unique and immersive cinematic experience. Pattinson’s dual roles and the film’s vivid imagination contribute to an exhilarating adventure.

GQ notes that MICKEY 17 is Bong Joon-ho’s most American film yet, exploring corporate exploitation and complex sci-fi storytelling.  While the film’s premises and performances stand out, it occasionally deviates from its central themes, leading to a somewhat disjointed experience. Nevertheless, it remains inventive and showcases Bong’s adaptability across different cultural landscapes.

PARASITE was made with a production budget of $11.4M and went on to generate $262.6M in worldwide ticket sales, making it both a critical success and wildly profitable with a 23:1 ratio of worldwide box office to production budget ratio.  This time, Bong had a much larger budget of $118M to work with to explore the scope of the film’s subject matter.

It will have to earn $295M in worldwide sales to break even.  Based on its domestic debut of $19.1M and remembering the fact that 80% of PARASITE’S total gross came from international markets, the film appears to have a chance of getting into the black.  As is often the case, the second weekend will be pivotal in determining its ultimate fate.

Finishing second is Disney’s CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD, which earned $8.5M and dropped 43% in its fourth weekend.  That brings its 24-day total to $176.6M domestic and $370.8M worldwide.  Here is a look at how this film compares to the three previous films in the franchise.

CAPTAIN AMERICA Movies After 24 Days

  • CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE FIRST AVENGER (7/22/2011) – Domestic Opening $65.1M (3,715 locations), Domestic 2nd Weekend $25.6M (-61%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $13.0M (-49%), Domestic 4th Weekend $7.2M (-45%), Domestic 24-Day $157.0M, Domestic Total $176.7M, Worldwide Total $370.6M, Budget $140M, RT Critics/Audience 80%/75%
  • CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER (4/4/2014) – Domestic Opening $95.0M (3,938 locations), Domestic 2nd Weekend $41.3M (-57%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $25.6M (-38%), Domestic 4th Weekend $16.2M (-37%), Domestic 24-Day $225.1M, Domestic Total $259.8M, Worldwide Total $714.4M, Budget $170M, RT Critics/Audience 90%/92%
  • CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR (5/6/2016) – Domestic Opening $179.1M (4,226 locations), Domestic 2nd Weekend $72.6M (-60%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $32.9M (-55%), Domestic 4th Weekend $15.4M (-53%), Domestic 24-Day $372.9M, Domestic Total $408.1M, Worldwide Total $1,153M, Budget $250M, RT Critics/Audience 90%/89%
  • CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD (2/14/2025) – Domestic Opening $88.5M (4,105 locations), Domestic 2nd Weekend $28.2M (-68%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $15.0M (-47%), Domestic 4th Weekend $8.5M (-43%), Domestic 24-Day $176.6M, Budget $180M, RT Critics/Audience 49%/79%

While BRAVE NEW WORLD’s domestic totals are lagging, it is plagued with an even more severe drop in international markets compared to earlier movies from the series.  CAPTAIN AMERICA 1, 2, and 3 recorded an impressive 62% of their box office in international markets whereas the latest movie is only generating 52%.

We speculate that audiences outside the U.S. may be less interested in an uber-American superhero story given the current geopolitical climate.  It appears that BRAVE NEW WORLD will fall short of the $450M in the worldwide box office that it would take for the movie to be profitable from its theatrical run.  This downturn calls into doubt the future of the franchise, despite its very profitable history.

Finishing third is the Focus Feature’ survival thriller LAST BREATH, which took in $4.2M during its second weekend and dropped 47%.  This brings its 10-day total to $14.7M domestic.  With Rotten Tomatoes scores of 78% from critics and 91% from audiences, supporters of the film had hoped that its second-weekend drop would be somewhat more contained. Unfortunately, the 49% drop was the steepest of any picture in this weekend’s top 10.

While director Alex Parkinson did a yeoman’s job to deliver a high-quality movie on a tightly controlled $29M budget, it appears that it will come up short of the $75M in worldwide gross it would need to be profitable.  With four new pictures open wide next weekend, LAST BREATH will struggle to hold on to many of its 3,090 current locations, making it that much harder to generate additional sales.

Finishing fourth is NEON’s horror flick THE MONKEY, which took in $3.9M on its third weekend and dropped 39% from last weekend.  This brings the film’s 17-day total to $31.0M domestic and $52.1M worldwide. Its opening weekend was the second highest in NEON’s history, trailing only LONGLEGS, also from filmmaker Osgood Perkins.  Here is how those two films compare.

THE MONKEY vs. LONGLEGS after 17 Days

  • THE MONKEY (2/21/2025) – Domestic Opening $14.2M (3,200), Domestic 2nd Weekend $6.5M (-55%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $3.9M (-39%), Domestic 17-Day $31.0M, Budget $11M, RT Critics/Audience 78%/59%
  • LONGLEGS (7/12/2024) – Domestic Opening $22.4M (2,510), Domestic 2nd Weekend $12.0M (-47%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $6.8M (-45%), Domestic 17-Day $58.6M, Domestic Total $73.9M, Worldwide Total $126.9M, Budget $10M, RT Critics/Audience 86%/61%

THE MONKEY will wind up an estimated final box office of $40M, which would make it the third highest domestic-grossing film from NEON of all time, behind last year’s LONGLEGS which earned $73.9M and PARASITE’s $53.8M from 2019.  Both of those films were wildly profitable, after being created with relatively low production budgets and generating surprisingly high box office results.

While THE MONKEY has not been quite as successful, it has already crossed into profitability with an estimated current multiple of 4.25:1 in the worldwide box office to production cost.  In addition, NEON should be congratulated for taking home its second Best Picture Oscar last weekend with ANORA.

Even a much larger studio would be thrilled to win two Best Picture Oscars in seven years, just ask Netflix.  The much smaller indie movie distributor has given a home to some of the most talented filmmakers in the world.  While Osgood Perkins’ THE MONKEY is unlikely to win Best Picture, this film’s financial success is helping NEON thrive.

Finishing in fifth place was Sony’s live-action animated sequel PADDINGTON IN PERU which took in $3.85M, a drop of a respectable 15%. After 24 days, the animated family film has taken in $37.0M domestic and $175.8M worldwide. The third movie in the series is running behind the domestic box office of both of its predecessors.

Since its international debut last November, PADDINGTON IN PERU has earned only $138.8M outside North America, whereas each of the first two PADDINGTON movies earned approximately $250M in those markets.  Here is a look at the box office history of the PADDINGTON franchise movies.

PADDINGTON Movies After 24 Days

  • PADDINGTON (1/16/2015) – Domestic Opening $18.9M (3,303 locations), Domestic 2nd Weekend $12.3M (-35%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $8.3M (-33%), Domestic 4th Weekend $5.2M (-37%), Domestic 24-day $57.1M, Domestic Total $76.3M, Worldwide Total $326.1M, Budget $55M, RT Critics/Audience 96%/80%
  • PADDINGTON 2 (1/12/2018) – Domestic Opening $11.0M (3,702 locations), Domestic 2nd Weekend $8M (-27%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $5.7M (-29%), Domestic 4th Weekend $3.3M (-42%), Domestic 24-day $36.5M, Domestic Total $40.9M, Worldwide Total $290.1M, Budget $40M, RT Critics/Audience 99%/89%
  • PADDINGTON IN PERU (2/14/2025) – Domestic Opening $13.0M (3,890 locations), Domestic 2nd Weekend $6.5M (-49%), Domestic 3rd Weekend $4.5M (-31%), Domestic 4th Weekend $3.9M (-15%), Domestic 24-day $37.0M, Budget $90M, RT Critics/Audience 93%/91%

We expect the film to finish with around $190M, which would not be enough to cover the $225M needed to reach profitability.  Any future PADDINGTON movie will need to be made at a lower cost than the $90M it took to bring Paddington back home to Peru.

Where Are We as of 3/6/2025

After the 9th week of 2025, the domestic box office stands at 121% compared to 2024 and 71%  compared to 2019.

Where Are We as of 3/6/2025

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    4. Arbitration Rules and Forum.The Federal Arbitration Act governs the interpretation and enforcement of this Arbitration Agreement. To begin an arbitration proceeding, you must send a letter requesting arbitration and describing your dispute or claim or request for relief to our registered agent [include name and address of registered agent here]. The arbitration will be conducted by JAMS, an established alternative dispute resolution provider.  Disputes involving claims, counterclaims, or request for relief under $250,000, not inclusive of attorneys’ fees and interest, shall be subject to JAMS’s most current version of the Streamlined Arbitration Rules and procedures available at http://www.jamsadr.com/rules-streamlined-arbitration/; all other disputes shall be subject to JAMS’s most current version of the Comprehensive Arbitration Rules and Procedures, available at http://www.jamsadr.com/rules-comprehensive-arbitration/. JAMS’s rules are also available at www.jamsadr.com or by calling JAMS at 800-352-5267.  If JAMS is not available to arbitrate, the parties will select an alternative arbitral forum.  If the arbitrator finds that you cannot afford to pay JAMS’s filing, administrative, hearing and/or other fees and cannot obtain a waiver from JAMS, we will pay them for you.  In addition, we will reimburse all such JAMS’s filing, administrative, hearing and/or other fees for disputes, claims, or requests for relief totaling less than $10,000 unless the arbitrator determines the claims are frivolous.
    5. You may choose to have the arbitration conducted by telephone, based on written submissions, or in person in the country where you live or at another mutually agreed location. Any judgment on the award rendered by the arbitrator may be entered in any court of competent jurisdiction. Authority of Arbitrator. The arbitrator shall have exclusive authority to (a) determine the scope and enforceability of this Arbitration Agreement and (b) resolve any dispute related to the interpretation, applicability, enforceability or formation of this Arbitration Agreement including, but not limited to, any assertion that all or any part of this Arbitration Agreement is void or voidable. The arbitration will decide the rights and liabilities, if any, of you and SCREENDOLLARS. The arbitration proceeding will not be consolidated with any other matters or joined with any other cases or parties. The arbitrator shall have the authority to grant motions dispositive of all or part of any claim. The arbitrator shall have the authority to award monetary damages and to grant any non-monetary remedy or relief available to an individual under applicable law, the arbitral forum’s rules, and the Agreement (including the Arbitration Agreement). The arbitrator shall issue a written award and statement of decision describing the essential findings and conclusions on which the award is based, including the calculation of any damages awarded. The arbitrator has the same authority to award relief on an individual basis that a judge in a court of law would have. The award of the arbitrator is final and binding upon you and us.
    6. Waiver of Jury Trial.YOU AND SCREENDOLLARS HEREBY WAIVE ANY CONSTITUTIONAL AND STATUTORY RIGHTS TO SUE IN COURT AND HAVE A TRIAL IN FRONT OF A JUDGE OR A JURY. You and Company are instead electing that all disputes, claims, or requests for relief shall be resolved by arbitration under this Arbitration Agreement, except as specified in Section 8.2(a) above.  An arbitrator can award on an individual basis the same damages and relief as a court and must follow this Agreement as a court would. However, there is no judge or jury in arbitration, and court review of an arbitration award is subject to very limited review.
    7. Waiver of Class or Other Non-Individualized Relief.ALL DISPUTES, CLAIMS, AND REQUESTS FOR RELIEF WITHIN THE SCOPE OF THIS ARBITRATION AGREEMENT MUST BE ARBITRATED ON AN INDIVIDUAL BASIS AND NOT ON A CLASS OR COLLECTIVE BASIS, ONLY INDIVIDUAL RELIEF IS AVAILABLE, AND CLAIMS OF MORE THAN ONE CUSTOMER OR USER CANNOT BE ARBITRATED OR CONSOLIDATED WITH THOSE OF ANY OTHER CUSTOMER OR USER. If a decision is issued stating that applicable law precludes enforcement of any of this subsection’s limitations as to a given dispute, claim, or request for relief, then such aspect must be severed from the arbitration and brought into the State or Federal Courts located in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.  All other disputes, claims, or requests for relief shall be arbitrated.
    8. 30-Day Right to Opt Out.You have the right to opt out of the provisions of this Arbitration Agreement by sending written notice of your decision to opt out to: contactus@screendollars.com, within 30 days after first becoming subject to this Arbitration Agreement. Your notice must include your name and address, your SCREENDOLLARS username (if any), the email address you used to set up your SCREENDOLLARS account (if you have one), and an unequivocal statement that you want to opt out of this Arbitration Agreement. If you opt out of this Arbitration Agreement, all other parts of this Agreement will continue to apply to you. Opting out of this Arbitration Agreement has no effect on any other arbitration agreements that you may currently have, or may enter in the future, with us.
    9. Severability.Except as provided in subsection (e) above, if any part or parts of this Arbitration Agreement are found under the law to be invalid or unenforceable, then such specific part or parts shall be of no force and effect and shall be severed and the remainder of the Arbitration Agreement shall continue in full force and effect.
    10. Survival of Agreement.This Arbitration Agreement will survive the termination of your relationship with SCREENDOLLARS.
    11. Notwithstanding any provision in this Agreement to the contrary, we agree that if SCREENDOLLARS makes any future material change to this Arbitration Agreement, you may reject that change within thirty (30) You and SCREENDOLLARS acknowledge and agree that Apple, and Apple’s subsidiaries, are third-party beneficiaries of the Agreement as related to your license of the App Store Sourced Application, and that, upon your acceptance of the terms and conditions of the Agreement, Apple will have the right (and will be deemed to have accepted the right) to enforce the Agreement as related to your license of the App Store Sourced Application against you as a third-party beneficiary thereof.days of such change becoming effective by writing to us at the following address: contactus@screendollars.com.
    12. Export.The Services may be subject to U.S. export control laws and may be subject to export or import regulations in other countries. You agree not to export, reexport, or transfer, directly or indirectly, any U.S. technical data acquired from SCREENDOLLARS, or any products utilizing such data, in violation of U.S. export laws or regulations.
    13. Electronic communications.The communications between you and SCREENDOLLARS may use electronic means, whether you visit or use our Services or send e-mails to us, or whether SCREENDOLLARS posts notices on or in the Services or communicates with you via e-mail. For contractual purposes, you (a) consent to receive communications from SCREENDOLLARS in an electronic form; and (b) agree that all terms and conditions, agreements, notices, disclosures, and other communications that SCREENDOLLARS provides to you electronically satisfy any legal requirement that such communications would satisfy if it were be in a hardcopy writing. The foregoing does not affect your statutory rights, including but not limited to the Electronic Signatures in Global and National Commerce Act at 15 U.S.C. section 7001 et. Seq (“E-Sign”).
    14. Governing law. Any and all controversies, disputes, demands, counts, claims or causes of action between you and SCREENDOLLARS and our employees, agents, successors, or assigns, regarding or relating to this Agreement or the Services will exclusively be governed by the internal laws of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, without regard to its choice of law rules and without regard to conflicts of law principles except that the arbitration provisions will be governed by the Federal Arbitration Act. The United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods will not apply to this Agreement.
    15. Notice.Where SCREENDOLLARS requires that you provide an e-mail address, you are responsible for providing us with your most current e-mail address. In the event that the last e-mail address you provided to us is not valid, or for any reason is not capable of delivering to any notices required or permitted by this Agreement, our dispatch of the e-mail containing such notice will nonetheless constitute effective notice.  You may give notice to us at the address set forth in Section 8.8.  Such notice shall be deemed given when received by us by letter delivered by nationally recognized overnight delivery service or first class postage prepaid mail at that address.
    16. Entire Agreement.This Agreement, including the documents referred to herein, constitutes the entire agreement between you and us regarding the use of the Services. Our failure to exercise or enforce any right or provision of this Agreement will not operate as a waiver of such right or provision. If any provision of this Agreement is, for any reason, held to be invalid or unenforceable, the other provisions of this Agreement will be unimpaired and the invalid or unenforceable provision will be deemed modified so that it is valid and enforceable to the maximum extent permitted by law. Your relationship to SCREENDOLLARS is that of an independent contractor, and neither party is an agent or partner of the other. This Agreement, and your rights and obligations herein, may not be assigned, subcontracted, or otherwise transferred by you without SCREENDOLLARS’s prior written consent, and any attempted assignment, subcontract, or transfer in violation of the foregoing will be null and void. The terms and conditions set forth in this Agreement will be binding upon assignees.
    17. Copyright/Trademark Information.Copyright © 2020, Screendollars, LLC. All rights reserved. All trademarks, logos and service marks (“Marks”) displayed on or in the Services are our property or the property of third parties. You may not use these Marks without our prior written consent or the consent of such third party.
    18. Contact Information:SCREENDOLLARS, LLC. | 33 Miller Hill Road, Dover, MA 02030 | (978) 494-4150, contactus@screendollars.com.

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